Thailand: BOT to ease further following August’s dovish rate cut
BOT to cut again.
Group Research - Econs, Chua Han Teng14 Aug 2025
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The Bank of Thailand (BOT) resumed its monetary easing cycle with a 25bps policy rate cut to 1.50% during its August meeting, after a temporary pause in June, as per our expectations. The decision was unanimous, with the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) looking to ensure conducive financial conditions to cushion multiple headwinds. We bring forward our rate cut forecast, expecting the BOT to loosen monetary policy by another 25bps to 1.25% by end-2025. The central bank’s rhetoric remains dovish, even after slashing rates by a total of 75bps this year to a two-year low. The MPC thinks that ‘monetary policy should be accommodative going forward to support the economy’. Assistant Governor Sakkapop Panyanukul also stated in a press briefing that there is room to further cut the benchmark rate, but with considerations to limited policy space. Additionally, incoming Governor Vitai Ratanakorn, who takes office on October 1, is a rate cut advocate.

While the BOT expects Thai economic growth to be close to its previous assessment of 2.3% in 2025, growth will weaken in 2H, with downside risks. Goods exports, while firm in 1H, will cool in 2H, due to a payback from earlier strong front-loading and ongoing US tariff headwinds. The revised US reciprocal tariff rate on Thai imported goods of 19% marks a sharp rise from 2024’s level, although it is close to the BOT’s 18% assumption, and approximately half of the 36% threatened on Liberation Day. There are also downside uncertainties surrounding US levies on transshipments and threatened US semiconductor tariffs, with the timing and extent for the latter still unclear. Foreign tourism, once a bright spot, is weakening, as Thailand loses Chinese tourists to other regional destinations. Private consumption is softening at a time of falling consumer confidence, amid elevated economic and income uncertainties. Credit growth remains negative due to subdued business loan demand. Political volatility further compounds these economic challenges. Amid below-target inflation, we see room for the BOT to utilise its limited monetary policy space again to cushion unexpected negative growth shocks.

Chua Han Teng, CFA

Senior Economist - Asean
[email protected]



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