Strong demand at this week’s debt auction underscored the positive momentum in IDR sovereign bonds. Total bids in Tuesday’s bond auction were the highest since early 2020 at IDR 162.3bn, with more than half of the bids concentrated in the 5Y bucket, and less at the longer tenors. Consequently, the 2/10Y spread widened to the most in two years. Even as the benchmark 10Y bond yield eased this month, the front end of curve had benefited more, on the back of expectations of a dovish BI, dollar inflows, rechannelling of demand from slowing supply of SRBIs and a softening US dollar. With markets pricing in a rate cut by the US Fed in September, high yielding papers akin to IDR bonds stand to benefit from rotational flows, imparting a bull steepening impulse on the curve. As of Jun-25, about 47% of the FII holdings in the conventional bonds are in the 5Y-10Y bucket, with a quarter >10Y. Onshore liquidity has also been flush, helped by an increase in government spending, and lower SRBI issuance, amongst others.
Concurrently, in a bid to further diversify its funding mix, the Indonesian government launched its maiden kangaroo bonds worth AUD 800mn ($ 522mn) last week, making it only the world’s second sovereign issuer of such bonds. The issue was heavily oversubscribed, attracting nearly AUD 8bn in orders (AUD 3.76bn for the 5Y and rest 10Y), helping to tighten the pricing by 25-30bps from the initial guidance. Samurai and dollar bonds were amongst the other foreign currency bonds this year. Meanwhile, the rupiah pared its post-Liberation Day weakness, to break above 16200/USD mark yesterday, tracking the weak dollar. With a subdued inflation profile, if rupiah retains its recent gains, the window for a cut is likely to reopen at this month’s policy meet.
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