India markets: Inflation softens, temporary lull before reversal
Slowest inflation in over 8 years.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao13 Aug 2025
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash/Adobe Stock Photo
Read More

July headline inflation rose by the slowest pace in over eight years to 1.6% yoy vs 2.1% in June. The print was a touch firmer than our and market expectations, but below the central bank’s target range. Much of the softness was driven by food besides base effects, with the segment declining for a second consecutive month on yoy terms, but up on sequential basis. The latter was led by the seasonal lift in vegetables, while pulses and cereals decelerated. Core (ex food and fuel) came off the boil to 4.1% yoy vs 4.4% month before, with other underlying price indicators (for instance core-core) pointing to benign price pressures.

The latest inflationary expectations survey showed a drop in the one-year ahead gauge to the lowest in five years, tracking the overall disinflationary impulse and aligning with the central bank’s objective to anchor price expectations. Global commodity prices have also been modest levels, besides indications of economic slack in activity. Inflation prints are nonetheless near the bottom, and as base effects recede a gradual rise is on the anvil. August inflation is tracking 2.0-2.1% yoy at this junture. We expect headline CPI inflation to average 2.8% yoy in FY26, revising down from 3% and compared to RBI’s forecast at 3.1%. As highlighted in Weak inflation print priced in, limited downmove in yields, the outrun was within the central bank’s expectations. This alongside optimism on the growth momentum convinced the central bank to maintain a neutral pause earlier this month. Non-committal policy guidance raised the bar for further rate reductions. Rate cuts will need an acknowledgement of weak growth dynamics.

Policy transmission, meanwhile, has been faster in market-based borrowing costs than banks’ loan rates, resulting in a partial shift in funding demand to the capital markets. Despite slowing loan growth, total flow of resources to the commercial sector rose from INR 33.9trn to INR 34.8trn in FY25. Commercial paper issuances by non-financial entities rose to INR 0.78trn in Apr-Jun25 (1QFY26) vs INR 0.30trn same time last year. Corporate bonds issued by non-financial entities increased to 0.95trn in the Jun25 Q vs 0.09trn in Jun24 Q, according to the central bank data. In the same period, non-food credit growth (excluding merger) by commercial banks rose by INR 2.4trn in Jun-25 Q vs the Mar25 Q. This compared to INR 4.5trn in Jun24 Q vs Mar24 Q. Policymakers are counting on higher passthrough of the policy easing undertaken to date, helped by surplus liquidity, while benchmark rates slip into an extended pause.


Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]



Subscribe here to receive our economics & macro strategy materials.
To unsubscribe, please click here.

Topic

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

[#for Distribution in Singapore] This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  11th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply.  The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.