Thai Rates: New short-term government to face constraints; bond yields pressured
Bond yields pressured.
Group Research - Econs, Chua Han Teng16 Sep 2025
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Thai financial markets have performed well following the stabilisation of the turbulent domestic political landscape, marked by the swift selection of Anutin Charnvirakul as Thailand’s 32nd Prime Minister (PM) on September 5. As of mid-September, the benchmark equity index was up ~5% month-to-date, and the Thai baht gained 1.8% against the USD. Although a near-term political vacuum has been avoided, we expect the new government to face constraints on any substantial policy changes/initiatives due to its minority status and short-lived term.

The ruling Bhumjaithai Party agreed to trigger elections by dissolving parliament within four months of the upcoming policy speech. This is one of five key conditions to secure premiership support from the People’s Party, which holds nearly a third of the 500 lower-house seats. Post-appointment, PM Anutin outlined four key government priorities: economy, security, natural disasters, and social threats. Economically, the administration aims to reduce the cost of living (notably energy and transport), ease the debt burden for farmers and low-income individuals, and boost community-level income. It is considering reviving the popular ‘Khon La Krueng’ Co-payment scheme to stimulate private consumption amid weak consumer confidence that hit a 32-month low as of August. We foresee slower economic growth in 2H25 due to high US tariffs and ongoing threat of US semiconductor levies. Thai government bond yields will likely remain pressured. Besides a new government, Vitai Ratanakorn, a rate cut advocate, will become the new Governor of the still-dovish Bank of Thailand starting October 1. We still see room for another 25bps policy rate cut to 1.25% to mitigate any negative growth shocks amid heightened uncertainty, even after 75bps of total easing this year.

Chua Han Teng, CFA

Senior Economist - Asean
[email protected]



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