India markets: Weak inflation priced in; yield downside limited
Inflation to return above 4% by early 2026.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao12 Aug 2025
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A weak inflation print for July is priced in. Headline inflation is likely to decelerate to a new low for the series at 1.3%yoy from 2.1%yoy month before. As we noted in India: Disinflationary phase and path ahead, the inflation moderation trend is food-led, followed by ex-gold services. Base effects have also played a dominant hand, reflected in the second month of contraction in food and beverages segment, while sequential momentum rose on seasonal monsoon-related supply vagaries. Core is expected to stay above 4%, lifted by precious metals. As base effects recede, headline inflation is expected to return to return to above 4% by early-2026. This alongside optimism on the growth momentum convinced the central bank to maintain a neutral pause this month (Neutral pause, watching liquidity and tariffs). Non-committal policy guidance raised the bar for further rate reductions. Trade numbers, due around mid-week, are expected to reflect the passage of frontloading in exports. Impact of new tariff rates imposed by the US will be apparent towards tail end of the year (first 25% kicked-in in early-Aug and second 25% on Aug 27).
 

The central bank’s move to revise up 2026 inflation forecasts was interpreted as a hawkish hold, leading bond yields higher. Concurrently, investors also await a recalibration in bond maturities in upcoming issuances. Supply of long-end paper which had been increased in the past few years to meet demand from insurance companies and provident funds, has run its course as demand has moderated due to regulatory changes, besides slowing net purchases by banks. While yields have risen across the board, expectations are that a sharper rise might be the catalyst to attract the authorities’ support. For now, pricing out of rate cut expectations, neutral policy stance and current supply mix lower the case for an imminent down move in yields, with the 10Y (generic) yield holding above 6.4% in trade this week. Tariff-related developments, end month dollar demand and tepid FPI flows had led the rupee towards its record low, necessitating strong intervention presence. This was partly reflected in the ~$7bn fall (also influenced by FX valuation effects) in foreign currency assets under reserves in the week ending Aug 1, with dollar sales likely to have continued in the subsequent week to contain volatility in the currency.


Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]



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