Powell and Macklem expose cracks in the USD’s resilience
USD’s resilience questioned.
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee24 Sep 2025
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The DXY Index consolidated in a tight range between 97.2 and 97.45 overnight with downside risks. US equities and bond yields declined because Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech explicitly described equities as “fairly highly valued” and acknowledged that there was no “risk-free path” for policy. He did not commit to aggressive rate cuts due to the challenging situation of balancing the upside risk to inflation with the downside risk to employment. In noting that the recent pace of job creation was below the breakeven rate needed to keep unemployment steady, Powell challenged the notion of the resilient US labour market, often cited as a pillar of exceptionalism.

At the same time, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s speech yesterday questioned the USD’s status as a safe haven, which represented a notable shift in discourse from a central bank governor. Macklem attributed the dent in the USD’s value as a hedge in times of stress to US trade policy since Liberation Day and concerns over the Fed’s independence from US President Donald Trump’s attempts to increase influence in the Fed. He also highlighted unsustainable US fiscal deficits and persistent trade imbalances as potential sources of financial stability risks.

Following Liberation Day, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde noted that the global economic order, once underpinned by US leadership and the USD’s dominant role as a reserve currency, has been fracturing due to US-led protectionism and threats to the Fed’s independence. Lagarde has been advocating a greater international role for the EUR, as an alternative in a "fracturing" world. ECB supervisors also pressed European banks on their USD funding resilience, modelling for scenarios where the Fed’s swap lines might not be available. Not surprisingly, EUR/USD is demonstrating remarkable resilience, near the year’s highest level, despite France’s fiscal/political worries, as well as the persistent uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine-Russia war.

Quote of the Day
“There are no passengers on spaceship earth. We are all crew.”
     Marshall McLuhan

September 24 in history
In 2014, the Mars Orbiter Mission made India the first Asian nation to reach Mars orbit, and the first nation in the world to do so in its first attempt.







Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 

 
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