Thailand: Bracing for a new government amid growth slowdown prospects
Awaiting new government.
Group Research - Econs, Chua Han Teng2 Sep 2025
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The Thai baht and equities saw limited movements following the Constitutional Court’s decision on August 29 to remove Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office, finding her guilty of ethical misconduct (see Thailand: PM’s suspension compounds political and economic uncertainties). Her dismissal appeared largely priced in, even as she marked the second leader from the ruling Pheu Thai party to be ousted since the 2023 General Elections. Attention has now shifted to the race for the next Thai premier and the formation of a new government, with a lower house parliamentary vote to select a new leader potentially scheduled for later this week. Various media sources reported that The People’s Party with nearly a third of the 500 seats will be decisive in determining which of the two front runners – leader of Bhumjaithai Party, Anutin Charnvirakul, or Pheu Thai Party’s candidate, Chaikasem Nitisiri – will emerge as the next PM. Even if a swift appointment of a PM and refreshed cabinet mitigates very near-term domestic political uncertainty, such concerns will probably linger, as the coalition taking power is unlikely to have a strong parliamentary support.

 

Investors will also focus on a potential economic slowdown in 2H25 amid various challenges. The latest data from the Bank of Thailand (BOT) showed the Thai economy easing in July compared to June. Various indicators, including private consumption in services, private investment, manufacturing production, and business funding, weakened in July, although goods exports remained bolstered by temporary front-loading to the US. The BOT remains dovish even after cutting its policy rate by a total of 75bps this year. We still see room for another 25bps reduction to 1.25% by end-2025 to mitigate any negative growth shocks amid heightened uncertainty, particularly surrounding US tariffs (see Thailand chartbook: Slower 2H25 growth on multiple headwinds).

Chua Han Teng, CFA

Senior Economist - Asean
[email protected]



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