Japan markets: Policy uncertainties remain after upper house election
Focus on trade talks and fiscal policy.
Group Research - Econs, Ma Tieying22 Jul 2025
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Japan’s upper house election on July 20 unfolded largely in line with expectations. Prime Minister Ishiba’s ruling coalition—comprising the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito—secured 47 seats, falling slightly short of the 50 needed for a majority. This follows the coalition’s marginal loss of control in the lower house during the October 2024 election. On July 21, Ishiba confirmed that he would remain in office and ruled out expanding the ruling coalition. As a result, the LDP-led minority government will need to seek support from opposition parties on a case-by-case basis to pass key legislation.

Japan–US trade negotiations are expected to regain momentum following the election, though the timeline remains tight. In the lead-up to the vote, the LDP took a firm stance on tariff issues—particularly on agricultural market access—to bolster rural voter support. Opposition parties generally favor engagement with the US, suggesting potential for broader domestic consensus after the election. However, concluding a comprehensive deal before the August 1 deadline remains difficult. It is possible that the US’s 25% tariffs on Japanese goods will take effect on August 1 before any agreement is reached to lower them.

Fiscal policy remains a source of uncertainty. Inflation and rising living costs were central concerns during the election campaign. The LDP advocates for direct cash subsidies to ease household burdens, while opposition parties support a consumption tax cut. The LDP’s supplementary budget proposal is likely to be delayed due to the divided legislature. A potential compromise—such as concessions on tax cuts in exchange for opposition support on key legislation—cannot be ruled out.

The monetary policy outlook remains complex. Persistently high inflation indicates that the Bank of Japan should continue its path toward policy normalization. However, weakening exports due to tariff uncertainty and delays in fiscal support may lead the BOJ to proceed cautiously. If a consumption tax cut is implemented, it could raise concerns over fiscal sustainability and push bond yields higher, potentially requiring the BOJ to maintain a strong presence in the JGB market for an extended period.

Financial markets responded to the election outcome with modest optimism, consistent with a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” dynamic. Investor attention now turns to two key events: progress in Japan–US trade talks before August 1 and the BOJ’s policy meeting on July 31. Meanwhile, potential political developments—such as internal pressure on Ishiba to step down or the possibility of expanding the ruling coalition to overcome legislative gridlock—will be closely watched in the months ahead.

Ma Tieying 馬鐵英, CFA

Senior Economist - Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan 經濟學家 - 日本, 南韓及台灣
[email protected]


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