Japan markets: Upper house election preview
Election risks on watch.
Group Research - Econs, Ma Tieying18 Jul 2025
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Japan’s upper house election on July 20 will be closely watched by markets. Recent polls from Asahi and Kyodo suggest that Prime Minister Ishiba’s ruling coalition—comprising the LDP and Komeito—may struggle to retain its majority of 50 seats. If the coalition falls short, it could lead to Ishiba’s resignation or a new coalition government.
 

In the event of a resignation, Japan–US trade negotiations could face further delays due to a leadership vacuum. The US’s 25% reciprocal tariff on Japan is scheduled to take effect on August 1.

 
A new coalition government would likely pursue aggressive fiscal loosening, including a possible consumption tax cut advocated by opposition parties—either a temporary 0% tax on food for one year, or a universal cut to 5%. While such measures would temporarily lower inflation and boost GDP growth, they would also raise concerns about tax revenue shortfalls and long-term debt sustainability.

 

The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy normalization would likely be delayed. Tariff-related export weakness in 2H25 and a tax-induced distortion of inflation and growth data in 2026 would complicate policy decisions. Moreover, fiscal sustainability concerns and rising bond yields would require the BOJ to maintain a strong presence in the JGB market for an extended period.

 

Conversely, if the ruling coalition maintains its majority, the Ishiba administration would remain in power. In this scenario, Japan–US trade talks would likely regain momentum, fiscal discipline would be upheld, and the BOJ could proceed with further normalization later this year.

 

Markets have already started to price in downside risks, reflected in the 13bps rise in 10-year JGB yields and a 3% depreciation of the yen against the dollar over the past two weeks. A positive election surprise could trigger a reversal of these moves.

Ma Tieying 馬鐵英, CFA

Senior Economist - Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan 經濟學家 - 日本, 南韓及台灣
[email protected]


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