CNY and CNH rates: Policy rate preview
PBOC to maintain accommodative stance.
Group Research - Econs, Samuel Tse18 Jul 2025
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Onshore CNY rates were steady this week, with 2-year and 10-year CGB yields hovering around 1.40% and 1.65%, respectively. CGB yields will likely trend lower though, in our view. The key driver of the feel-good factor, the robust Q2 GDP data, was exports-led, which could reverse in 2H25.  Import growth remained modest at 1.1% YoY in June, suggesting manufacturers may have reduced inbound shipments in anticipation of weaker export orders. The US trans-shipment tariffs on other countries could hinder China's trade performance going forward. Second, the recovery in domestic demand remains uneven. Retail sales growth was primarily fueled by subsidized products like household electronics. While M1 growth picked up from 2.3% YoY in May to 4.6% in June following rate cuts, the 3.7 percentage points gap between M2 and M1 growth indicates that corporations and individuals remain hesitant to invest and spend. Accordingly, fixed asset investment growth retreated to post-COVID low of 2.8% YoY YTD in June.

The PBOC is expected to maintain its accommodative monetary policy stanceWhile it may keep the 1-year LPR at 3.00% next Monday, we anticipate another 20 bps cut in 2H. The central bank will also likely continue easing through quantitative measures, having already injected a net RMB 1.7 trillion into the system via open market operations in Q2. Short-end 2-year CGB yields, which are more sensitive to liquidity conditions, should see downward pressure. Long-end yields should remain supported by fiscal policy initiatives. Potential stimulus measures, such as shantytown redevelopment, may lead to increased long-end bond issuance, likely resulting in a steeper yield curve.


Samuel Tse 謝家曦

Senior Economist- China & Hong Kong 資深經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]



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