DACS: Hong Kong credit on watch
Hong Kong real estate could stabilize.
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang1 Jul 2025
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This week’s featured insight is our DBS Aggregate Credit Spread (DACS) analysis, tracking corporate credit performance and offshore funding costs across industries for China, Hong Kong, Korea, India, and Indonesia.

Global risk sentiment has improved, helped by a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, as well as signs of US moderation on its tariff stance. The White House has downplayed its July 9 deadline for the end of the tariff pause, and Trump is set to issue unilateral trade deals to those trading partners who have not been able to advance trade negotiations. Improving risk sentiment has also supported Asian USD credit, with our Asian ex-Japan DACS index narrowing towards March lows that were seen before Trump's reciprocal tariffs. However, Hong Kong USD credit is a notable exception, with our Hong Kong DACS index still indicating sticky credit spreads near April highs.

Fragility in Hong Kong credit largely stems from the real estate sector, which comprises nearly half of Hong Kong's total outstanding USD bonds. Sluggish home sales and a weak commercial rental market had led to tighter liquidity for some leveraged developers. Idiosyncratic risks are also being watched after an issuer exercised its option to defer coupon payments and sought a refinancing deal for its maturing bank loans. That said, flush HKD liquidity and a sharp fall in HIBOR rates since May should support homebuying and house prices in Hong Kong. With the Fed also likely to resume rate cuts in the 2H of 2025 that will lower interest costs on USD loans, Hong Kong's real estate USD credit is likely to stabilize.




Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]


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