Indonesia: Relief rally aids rupiah, fiscal watch
Firmer IDR on risk rally.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao27 Jun 2025
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Indonesian asset markets gained this week, benefiting from improved sentiments, a weaker dollar owing to concerns over the US Fed’s independence and pullback in the global oil prices on receding geopolitical risks. Signs of a cutback in SRBI issuance has buoyed demand at the short end of the yield curve, also helped by expectations of another 50bp rate cuts by end year. Rupiah trimmed losses to appreciate 2%/USD this quarter, with official bond purchases helping to cap yields. Long-end benchmark yield is likely to ease towards 6.6%. An expected uptick in June inflation, in data due next week, might not last, as mid-year stimulus measures by way of transportation and utility subsidies impart disinflationary impulse to the related segments. 

On the fiscal end, 2025 budget targets are unlikely to change despite higher crude oil prices vs average Jan-May25 levels. Prevailing prices are lower than the official guidance $82pb ($75-$85pb) for this year and likely next. Energy-related segments make up about 9% of the inflation basket, comprising of utilities, fuel and transport. Direct impact of higher global crude on to domestic inflation is cushioned by inbuilt shock-absorbers, by way of fuel subsidies and below market-costs for utility tariffs. Notwithstanding concerns over the viability of meeting revenue targets this year, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati reiterated that authorities plan to adhere to budgeted deficit target of -2.5% of GDP. We see modest upside risks to the 2025 fiscal deficit owing to weaker revenue run-rate after the VAT rate hike cancellation and consolidation of the SOE revenue stream to the centre’s investment agency. In this scenario, a spending undershoot might be the balancing factor to meet targets. In 5M25, domestic revenues are down 11% yoy, accompanied by a drop in the growth in disbursements, helping to contain YTD fiscal slippage. On a related note, cumulative allocation towards the free meals program stands trimmed to IDR 350trn vs IDR 400trn floated at the start of the year, partly due to operational and administrative issues.

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]



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