Credit: Asia looks overly sanguine amid developing risks
Turning cautious on Asian credit.
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang19 Apr 2024
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Asian USD credit spreads have been surprisingly sanguine despite a pushing out of Fed rate cuts, increased Middle East tensions, and Fitch’s imposing a negative rating outlook for China. Except for a sell-off in Indonesian credit, major Asian USD credit markets have seen spreads being little changed, or even tightening to record lows.

We see a slew of emerging risks, and are turning more cautious on Asian credit, having previously assessed its risk-reward to be less attractive compared to the start of 2024 (see here). A higher trajectory for the Fed Funds rates than previously thought, and risks of a Middle East conflict, will pose hurdles to Asian credit performance. At the least, Asian central banks are likely to be more hesitant in cutting rates without the Fed cutting rates in the short-term. This means higher refinancing costs that will weigh on leveraged firms. Two, higher US terminal rates and increased geopolitical tensions may also result in capital outflow pressures and drive up the USD, increasing the USD-denominated debt burden for Asian firms. Finally, an outbreak of direct conflict in the Middle East, which is not improbable, will almost certainly lead to a lurch higher in oil prices in the short-term. With many Asian economies being net oil importers, any surge in oil prices will pose cost headwinds for most Asian firms. Given the above, Asian credit spreads could widen more substantially and see greater volatility in Q2.

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]
 
 


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