USD Rates: Labour market watch
Cautious into Friday’s nonfarm payrolls.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow3 Jun 2025
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash/Adobe Stock Photo
Read More

Despite sentiment holding up, we suspect that the market will trade cautious heading into NFP, capping front to belly tenor US Treasury yields in the immediate term. Market participants have been concerned about the US labour market for some time. However, bets on aggressive easing have generally not paid off as the labour market stays resilient over the past few years. That said, sentiment might get a bit dicey if investors rethink the exuberance in risky assets. Moreover, tier 2 labour market data continue to weaken. Continuous and initial jobless claims from last week were materially higher than where they were a year ago on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. This could be an early indication that the trade war might be having some impact, fuelling Fed cuts expectations.



From a policymaking perspective, it would probably require a set of very weak labour market numbers to prompt the Fed to cut rates imminently. The market is pricing in close to zero chance of a June cut and roughly 25% chance of a July cut. We think that NFP < 80k and / or the unemployment rate climbing up by 0.2%-pt would imply a materially weaker labour market. Should this play out, the odds of a June cut would probably shift towards 25% and July pricing close to 100%. Accordingly, betting on increased odds of a June cut provides decent risk-to-reward as the downside appears limited. Given the market’s tendency to extrapolate, weak data would also likely lead to market pricing of 3-4 cuts this year from around 2 currently. Further out, we note that upward pressures on US yields are persisting even as there are no UST auctions this week. Investors could be eyeing 10Y and 30Y auctions in Japan and the possible spillover unto the rest of the DM space.


Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]
 



Subscribe here to receive our economics & macro strategy materials.
To unsubscribe, please click here.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

[#for Distribution in Singapore] This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  11th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply.  The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.