The DXY Index depreciated by 0.6% to 98.71 in the first session of June, approaching the 97.9 low seen on April 21. Despite the US and China accusing each other of violating the trade truce agreed on May 12, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices rose by 0.6% and 0.7% overnight. The market’s narrative, “Trump Always Chickens Out” or TACO, has gained traction. Markets remained hopeful that Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping would engage in direct talks to address the trade disagreements. Investors were also awaiting the appeals court’s decision on whether to uphold or throw out the filing against Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, pending the plaintiffs’ responses by June 5 and that for the Trump administration by June 9.
US ISM manufacturing fell again to 48.5 in May, bucking the consensus for an increase to 49.5 from 48.7 in April. Despite the softer headline number, new orders improved to 47.6 from 47.2, and employment rose to 46.8 from 46.5. Prices paid slowed to 69.4 from 69.8, but not enough to prevent the US Treasury 30Y yield from increasing another 3.5 bps to 4.966%. Tomorrow’s ISM Services PMI survey will matter more, given the sector’s more significant contribution to the US economy. This week’s US jobs data will be closely watched because the futures markets have increased bets to more than 50% for the Fed to lower rates in September.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller believed the Fed could lower interest rates later this year. He brushed aside the higher long-term inflation expectations reported in the University of Michigan’s consumer survey. Waller’s base scenario is one-off inflation pressures from Trump’s tariffs, taking comfort in the trade negotiations to avoid the significantly higher tariffs proposed on Liberation Day, and was less worried about the kind of supply chain disruptions seen during the Covid-19 pandemic. Instead, Waller paid more attention to downside risks to US economic activities and the labour market.
However, the US Treasury 30Y yield rose another 3.5 bps to 4.966%, inching closer to the 5% pain threshold that reflected US fiscal worries. Bloomberg reported that Senate Republican leaders pushed for permanent tax changes to Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.” Apart from resistance by the fiscal hawks in the Senate, the bill would need to return to the House (which passed the original bill by a tight 215-214 vote on May 22) for approval again. The Trump administration aims to get the bill to the president’s desk by Independence Day for signature before the estimated X-date in August.
Quote of the Day
“The elevator to success is out of order. You'll have to use the stairs, one step at a time.”
Joe Girard
June 3 in history
The initial 1958 State of Singapore Constitution was brought into force on June 3, 1959, granting Singapore full self-government.
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