SGD Rates: Basis swaps now favour SGD issuers
Interest to issue SGD papers and swap the proceeds to USD.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow29 May 2025
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Flush USD liquidity and a general improvement in risk appetite have been fuelling pay positions in SORA-SOFR bases as investors seek carry. However, we think that this trade is no longer attractive. There is close to zero pickup for 5Y SGS versus UST while the pickup for 10Y SGS is now slightly negative. SORA-SOFR basis is only half of the picture, the other key factor lies with the fact that SGS-SORA spreads (defined as OIS rates less yields) are much less negative than UST-SOFR spreads, reflecting greater scarcity of SGSs versus USTs. If benign conditions persist (90-day trade war truce ends on 9 July offering a decent window), there would be interest to issue SGD papers and swap the proceeds to USD for comparable / cheaper funding costs (assuming credit spreads are in line). If we are correct, there would be two ways this would manifest in the rates space. First, risks are tilted towards SGS-SORA spreads turning more negative as investors growth more cautious (SGS underperform SORA from a receive perspective). Second, there could be more interest in receiving SORA-SOFR basis, especially for the 5Y to 10Y segments.




Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]


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