Indonesia: Firm GDP report adds to broader market relief
Firm growth backs BI’s quest for price and FX stability.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao8 May 2024
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Rupiah assets benefited from the broader stabilization in risk-uptake this week amidst a re-build in US rate cut expectations. A firm domestic growth report provided additional comfort. The Indonesian economy expanded 5.1% yoy in 1Q24, along our expectations, vs 5.05% in 2023. Final consumption grew a strong 6.6% yoy, led primarily by higher public spending (government consumption rose 19.9%), besides a 4.9% lift in household consumption. Campaign spending which was also reflected in non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) expenditure, rose a sharp 24.3%. This was accompanied by disbursement towards social schemes (rice aid and cash handouts), annual pre-Lebaran bonus, increase in salaries of civil servants and Ramadan-related spending. Strong consumption spending was partially offset by slower rise in investments and weak external trade as commodity tailwinds recede. On the industry end, agriculture (and forestry and fishing) was the only sector to contract, as farm output was hurt by dry conditions. With 2Q24 likely to benefit from a seasonal updrift and a jumpstart in investment activities from a conclusive election result and frontloading of infra spending, we maintain our full year forecast of 5%.

Firm growth will allow the BI to stay focused on price and FX stability. A revival in US rate cut expectations in the past week led to an improvement in sentiments towards rupiah assets, with the IDR bond yield slipping by the most since Nov23 and IDR emerging as amongst the notable gainers in the region. Last week’s proactive BI hike will be viewed as an insurance move in favour of rate differentials if US dollar were to strengthen anew. Our base case is for the BI to keep rates on hold for rest of the year, keeping the door open to act if conditions so warrant. Domestic conditions are less favourable, than last year, for the currency, on the back of a narrower trade surplus, moderate build-up in reserves, negative seasonality till early-3Q, and uncertainty over the fiscal outlook.

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]
 

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