India rates: Bond buyback provides relief
Bond buyback does not reflect RBI’s policy stance.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao7 May 2024
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INR bond yields tracked its UST counterpart lower in the past week, following a dovish FOMC and softer US jobs data. Add to this the RBI announced a bond buyback of INR 400bn worth securities maturing this year, to ease liquidity. Government spending is expected to be slow in midst of ongoing elections, with the model code of conduct in place. The buyback of 6M-9M papers will offset the increase in government cash balances, preventing liquidity from slipping into a deficit, while also anchoring short term rates. Banking system liquidity was in marginal deficit and is likely to stay close to current levels this month as seasonal tax outflows loom, keeping call fixings slightly above the repo rate. 

We are not in the camp which interprets the buyback as a signal of a change in the central bank’s stance on liquidity or policy. In our view, it underscores the authorities’ preference to stay nimble with its liquidity toolkit, anchor short term rates, mainly tap the VRR/ VRRR operations as required and prevent an election-driven squeeze in the interim. On policy, the central bank will be keen to watch the impact of the ongoing heatwave on perishables inflation, particularly vegetables. Encouragingly, the intensity has decreased in the eastern and southern belts, with temperatures high elsewhere, impacting the zaid crops (read our opinion piece here). Yield on the new 10Y paper slipped below 7.10%, eyeing 7.0% next, with bond markets likely to take cues from US counterparts in a data-light week, ahead of the domestic inflation print due mid-month.



Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]
 

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