Indonesia rates: Policy faces a delicate balancing act
Hawkish and cautious tone amid IDR weakness.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao24 Apr 2024
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Market expectations are divided as we approach today’s Bank Indonesia monetary policy decision. A majority expect the 7D policy rate to be left unchanged at 6%, while few (including us) expect the authorities to vote in favour of a modest 25bp hike. Admittedly, it is a tough call to make. Even as there has been a let-up in the extent of rupiah depreciation this week, we expect policymakers to undertake a pre-emptive hike to instil confidence and build in a higher real rate advantage in favour of the currency. The ID-US spread on the benchmark rate is thin at 50bp currently, alongside ID-US 10Y gap at ~210-240bp, half of the pre-pandemic range. Add to this, further near-term dollar strength remains on the table on the likelihood of the US dot plot shifting towards two rate cuts next month and additional drip of strong US data in the interim. Domestic inflation is also likely to inch up further to the higher end of the BI’s target of 1.5-3.5% range on higher food, necessitating a hawkish stance.

A modest hike is no panacea for rupiah weakness, but we expect the tighter bias to be concurrent to other responses, including conducting further triple intervention, attracting inflows at the short end of the curve, and calling on state owned enterprises to optimize/ restrain their sizeable dollar purchases. A strong intervention presence has pushed down the foreign reserve stock by $6bn in 1Q24, after climbing by $9bn in 2023. The bias to keep the short-term/ open market operations rate high to draw in foreign flows is also bound to continue, with the return on SRBIs drifting up since Feb24 and markedly higher than the rate on offer when the instrument was introduced in Sep23. Despite this, it is equally compelling to expect policymakers to extend the rate pause, to allow the FX rate and bond yields to absorb part of the dollar-driven shock, as US Fed rate cut expectations get repriced. If the BI opts to pause, we expect the tone to be hawkish and caution to backstop the currency, reinforcing that they stand ready to act if strong depreciation pressures return.

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]
 

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