Multi-Asset Weekly: Global Stocks Dip Despite Tech Run-Up
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Chief Investment Office29 May 2023
  • Equities: Tech run-up on Thursday not enough to prevent another losing week for global equities
  • FX: Upcoming US jobs data vital to extend the DXY’s uptrend in upper half of 101-106 range
  • Rates: USD rates space turned decidedly hawkish amidst optimism over debt ceiling
  • Thematics: Rising EV sales of foreign OEMs in China prove positive on the auto parts company sector
  • The Week Ahead: Keep a lookout for US Change in Nonfarm Payroll; Japan Industrial Production Numbers
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Equities: Markets mixed as US reaches debt ceiling deal

Global equities ended mixed amid debt ceiling negotiations. Markets were once again weighed down last week (ended 26 May) by US debt ceiling negotiations and the worsening economic outlook in Europe as Germany slips into recession for 1Q. Global equities were down 0.5% for the week, with Developed Markets and Emerging Markets losing 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.

US equities rallied higher last Thursday (25 May), after higher-than-expected forecasts from Nvidia triggered a frenzied run up in the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite, which was up 2.5% for the week and +24% YTD. S&P 500 and Dow Jones ended the week up 0.3% and down 1.0% respectively. Europe closed lower for the week as optimism weakens after its largest economy, Germany fell into recession after reporting -0.3% GDP growth for 1Q; the Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 lost 1.6% and 1.7% respectively. China equities closed lower across the board with industrial output, retail sales, and fixed asset investments all growing at weaker than expected pace, prompting investors to question if the post-pandemic recovery is losing momentum; the SHCOMP and HSCEI lost 2.2% and 3.9% respectively.

Topic in focus: Favour China State-owned Banks. China financials have delivered good performance since the conclusion of China’s Party Congress in end October 2022 where regulators strengthen oversight of the USD60t financial system. Since 2017, deleveraging campaigns pushed by regulators meant that Chinese banks have healthier balance sheets and higher liquidity. YTD, China’s banking index has returned c.22% gains driven by:

  1. Expectations of US rate hikes coming to an end. This development should reverse the yield compression between China large banks and bonds
  2. Narrowing of steep valuation discounts
  3. Resumption in total social financing growth to 11.7%, back to the level last seen in January 2022

We remain constructive on China’s state-owned enterprise (SOE) banks as the strong balance sheets and sustainable dividend yields (8.46% in 2023) makes them an attractive income generating building block within the barbell portfolio.

Figure 1: China Banks performance

Source: Bloomberg, DBS

 


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