Un-stablecoins Redux
Crypto has no central bank to come to its rescue
Chief Investment Office, Daryl Ho13 Mar 2023
  • Crypto markets have been roiled by the recent failures of crypto-related banks
  • The USDC stablecoin has one of the largest exposures to SVB, raising concerns of its peg to the USD
  • Crypto enthusiasts should not harbour a “buy-the-dip” mentality as institutions in the space fall
  • No longer about what cryptocurrencies to buy, but where to buy them
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Another one bites the dust. The crypto markets have once again been roiled by news of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the innovative financier to frontier sectors such as life sciences, private equity/venture capital, cryptocurrency, and other alternative startups. Concerns centre particularly about Circle – the company behind the issuance of the USDC stablecoin – given that it has been revealed to have c.USD3.3b in deposits in the ill-fated bank prior to its collapse; casting doubt on the degree to which such reserves would ever be recoverable (if at all) in the aftermath, although the Fed has since rolled out emergency measures to support depositors.  

Asset-Liability mismatches. Inherent to such systems of fiat-backed stablecoin is the risk of asset-liability mismatches, a risk that we had previously highlighted in light of the collapse of TerraUSD in 2022. Stablecoin issuers hold fiat-based assets (deposits, bills, commercial paper, bonds etc.) to back their liabilities (stablecoin). Should there be any doubt concerning the integrity of such fiat assets (such as Circle’s deposits with SVB), we opined that a “bank-run” like loss of confidence “could pose a systemic risk for the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem given its central role in crypto trading”. Moreover, we also warned that “investors should not take the stability of stablecoins for granted”, and the recent de-pegging of USDC serves once again to remind us that such warnings should be heeded. It is ironic however, that market price action has resulted in Tether – the less reputable stablecoin that is notoriously opaque concerning its reserves – being bid above par in a flight-to-safety response. In the land of the blind as they say, the one-eyed man is king.

Crypto has no central bank to come to its rescue. For those experienced in the financial markets, the failure of SVB, Silvergate, and Signature Bank (cryptocurrency-focused banks) just days prior is reminiscent of the domino-like fall of financial institutions during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis given the intricate cross-exposures between entities. Unlike traditional banks however, the cryptocurrency system does not have a liquidity provider of last resort in the Federal Reserve to bail them out of a systemic crisis. As such, we recommend that cryptocurrency enthusiasts not harbour a “buy-the-dip” mentality while institutions around the space continue to fall, and bide their time in taking outsized risk given that the Bitcoin halving cycle – a relatively reliable catalyst for a crypto bull-market cycle – is still about a year away in 2024.

Not what, but where. At this point, it is no longer about what cryptocurrencies to buy, but where one is buying them. We think it prudent to stick with reputable exchanges with strong balance sheets and character of management to avoid the shock of sudden insolvencies that would render one’s crypto holdings defunct indefinitely.

 

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