AUD’s resilience vs. GBP risks
RBA to stand pat in 2024, BOE to open door for cuts.
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee8 May 2024
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AUD corrected lower after the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday. AUD/USD hit a high of 0.6644 in anticipation of a less neutral policy stance due to the latest rise in inflation. The RBA Board maintained that it was not ruling anything in or out. However, AUD/USD found support around 0.6580, or its 100-day moving average. The Statement of Monetary Policy (SMP) implied that the RBA is not considering lowering rates this year – the revised forecasts depicted sticky inflation and an economic growth recovery after a slowdown in 1H24. In the near term, the RBA sees inflation rising to 3.8% YoY in June from 3.5% in March before resuming its decline. The RBA projected inflation returning into the 2-3% target band only by the end of 2025 and the mid-point of the range in 2026. Next week’s wage price index will be important, given the RBA’s expectations for wage growth to peak. The SMP projected wage growth holding steady at the latest 15-year high of 4.2% into mid-2024. RBA Governor Michele Bullock believed that interest rates were at the right level and that financial conditions were restrictive enough. However, Bullock also said rate hikes would be necessary if services inflation gets stuck.

GBP is in focus ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of England meeting. GBP/USD depreciated 0.4% to 1.25 on Tuesday in anticipation of a dovish pivot by the BOE. At the last monetary policy meeting on March 21, the BOE’s two hawks – Jonathan Haskel and Catherine Mann – stopped voting for a hike. Swati Dhingra will likely remain the lone dove calling for a cut. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden have become more confident about falling inflation. While Bailey opened the door for a rate cut this year, Chief Economist Huw Pill cautioned that the first cut might be months away. With the BOE likely to lower rates before the RBA this year, GBP/AUD has scope to keep depreciating despite falling from a high of 1.9480 to 1.8975. The last low was around 1.86 at the end of 2023.

DXY corrected up by 0.3% to 105.4 but may not return to its 105.5-106.5 range of the previous three weeks. The US Treasury 10Y yield eased a fifth session by 3 bps to 4.457%, its lowest since April 9. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari hinted that the dot plot in June would not project more than two cuts, down from three in March. His comments are consistent with the post-FOMC narrative that the next rate move will unlikely be a hike. Following the downside surprises in US advanced GDP and nonfarm payrolls, next week’s CPI inflation may decline again after rising for two months, a threat the greenback’s exceptional strength this year.


Quote of the day
“Even a snail will eventually reach its destination.”
      Gail Tsukiyama

8 May in history
Following Germany’s unconditional surrender, World War II officially ended in Europe at midnight in 1945.






 

Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]


 

 
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