AUD to test 0.6650 resistance if RBA sounds hawkish
AUD’s upside hinges on RBA’s tone today.
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee7 May 2024
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Today’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting could see AUD/USD testing 0.6650 or its resistance level over the past two months. CPI inflation edged up to 3.5% YoY in March, following three months of consistent readings at 3.4%. Although this modest increase is unlikely to prompt a surprise rate hike at this meeting, the futures market is anticipating a tightening in September. Conversely, economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the RBA to lower rates by the end of 2024. Their outlook could change if the RBA asserts that rates must stay restrictive for longer to bring inflation back to the 2-3% target. This scenario is more likely if the accompanying Statement of Monetary Policy reveals new forecasts depicting persistent price pressures due to a tight labour market maintain elevated wage growth which outpaces headline inflation. Since the previous RBA meeting on March 19, the 10Y bond yield has climbed from 4.08% to 4.38%, surpassing the 4.35% policy rate for the first time since early December. AUD/USD has rebounded from the year’s low of 0.6363 on April 19 to 0.6625 yesterday, boosted by Australia’s widening bond yield differential against the US.

DXY closed at 105, little changed from last Friday’s close. The CAD, GBP, and EUR each appreciated 0.1%, which was offset by a 0.6% depreciation in the JPY. While it would be reasonable for the DXY to consolidate after the post-FOMC sell-off, it lacks the exceptional fundamentals to return higher. Following the FOMC meeting on May 1, the US bond yields continued to ease. The yield on the 10Y note decreased by 2 bps to 4.49% overnight, near last Friday’s 4.45% low. Interest rate futures are predicting Fed cuts in September and December after the Fed pushed back rate hike talk. Fed President John Williams (New York) said the Fed would gradually lower rates with the timing totally dependent on data. Thomas Barkin (Richmond) expressed that current rates were sufficiently restrictive to cool demand and inflation. Williams saw the US economy slowing to 2-2.5% in 2024 from 2.5% in 2023, while Barkin saw no signs of the economy overheating. Additionally, the San Francisco Fed released a study indicating that the surplus pandemic savings in the US economy had depleted. According to the Fed’s SLOOS Survey, banks reported tighter lending standards and weaker demand for all loan types. A major US bank noted that low-income consumers have become significantly more cautious with their spending and were facing difficulties in managing their loan payments.


Quote of the day
“We all make choices, but in the end our choices make us.”
      Ken Levine

7 May in history
In 1912, Columbia University approved plans for awarding the Pulitzer Prize in several categories.






 

Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]


 

 
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