USD has become less exceptional
The DXY’s exceptional rally in January-April appears to be losing momentum and poised for a correction. .
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee6 May 2024
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The factors that kept the USD strong this year have weakened. The DXY Index retreated to 105 last week after failing to break above 106.50 in the past three weeks. Other signs of the USD’s possible reversal included the quickened recoveries in the JPY and CNY, two of Asia’s weakest currencies. For example, the offshore USD/CNH is now below and not above the onshore USD/CNY. After touching 160 on April 29 for the first time since 1990, USD/JPY plunged to 153 on alleged interventions by Japan’s policymakers and the Fed maintaining its dovish stance last week.
 

The US economy has become less exceptional. Advanced GDP growth slowed to 1.6% QoQ saar in 1Q24, its worst performance since the technical recession in 1H22. The ISM PMIs for services and manufacturing were below the breakeven 50 levels in April, heralding a slower start to the economy in 2Q24. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index faltered a third month to 97 in April, its lowest since July 2022. Only 11.7% of the respondents expected more jobs in the next six months, the fewest since late 2011.

 

The US labour market has become less tight. Nonfarm payrolls slowed to 175k in April from 315k in March, its first sub-200k print in five months. Average hourly earnings growth slowed a third month to 3.9% YoY in April, below 4% for the first time since June 2021. The ISM services employment index fell to 45.9 in April, below 50 for a third month. Last Friday’s monthly jobs data finally brought the US Treasury 10Y yield below 4.60% to 4.51%, its lowest since April 9, with interest rate futures contemplating a September rate cut again.

 

The stall in US disinflation was insufficient for the Fed to abandon its dovish pivot. At the post-FOMC press conference on May 1, Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed’s next policy rate move was unlikely a hike. The PCE core deflator was 2.8% YoY in March, down significantly from its 5.6% peak in February 2022, near the Fed’s 2.6% projection for 4Q24, a major assumption underlining the three rate cuts in March’s dot plot. Hence, two inflation data could send the DXY below its 50-day moving average (104.56) next week. On May 13, the New York Fed’s 1-year inflation expectations could drop in April to below 3% for the first month since November 2022. On May 15, the Bloomberg consensus sees CPI inflation slowing again to 3.7% YoY in April, a three-year low.

 

The DXY’s downside will need its largest component, the EUR, to recover. The EU Commission will likely upgrade its economic forecasts this week. Real GDP expanded by 0.3% QoQ sa expansion in 1Q24 vs. the 0% consensus, exiting the technical recession seen in 2H23. The European Central Bank has been unwilling to pre-commit to more rate cuts beyond the one in June. GBP might also take its cue from the UK GDP on May 10, confirming the UK economy’s exit from technical recession. At its meeting on May 9, the Bank of England will likely be more confident about falling inflation but remain too divided on a rate cut anytime soon. AUD can appreciate above 0.6650, or the past two months’ resistance, if the Reserve Bank of Australia keeps the door open for another hike, supported by more optimistic forecasts in its Statement of Monetary Policy on May 7.

 

 

Quote of the day

“Time moves in one direction, memory in another.”

      William Gibson

 

6 May in history

In 1889, the Eiffel Tower was officially opened to the public at the Universal Exposition in Paris.






 

Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]


 

 
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