HKD rates: Growth and HIBOR uptrend
Bottoming out in HIBOR.
Group Research - Econs, Samuel Tse3 May 2024
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Hong Kong’s 1Q GDP growth was stronger-than-expected at 2.7% YoY, with sequential growth accelerating from 0.2% QoQ in 4Q23 to 2.3%. Detailed figures showed a clear divergence between domestic and external sectors. Net exports contributed to 3.2%ppts of the headline growth. Outward shipment advanced by 6.7% YoY alongside a stabilizing Chinese economy. Note that China accounted for 60% of Hong Kong’s exports in 1Q. Meanwhile, imports rose at a slower pace of 3.2% due to modest domestic demand. On the flip side, private consumption expenditure, which accounts for 69% of the GDP, barely grew by 1.0% YoY. Resident consumption and inbound tourist spending were shattered by strong HKD exchange rates. Investment growth was flattish amid elevated HKD rates. 

 

Despite a tepid domestic demand, HIBORs has been bottoming out. As the HKMA Aggregate Balance (interbank liquidity) has already fallen to post-GFC low of HKD45bn, short-end HIBORs are now sensitive to demand for HKD from asset markets. In fact, the Hang Seng Index has rebounded by 10.0% in the past month alongside the stabilizing China economic data and also favourable support policies. Property transaction has regained some traction after removal of major demand-management policies. Meanwhile, the reversing USD rate cut expectation will boost HIBORs. In fact, the HKD swap curve has been shifting up. This points to higher funding costs ahead. On entering June, HIBORs will see more palpable increases due to usual half year-end boost and dividend payment season. 


Samuel Tse 謝家曦

Economist - China & Hong Kong 經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]


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