FX Daily: JPY and offshore RMB strengthen together
Asian currency recovery led by JPY.
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang3 May 2024
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From extreme weakness on Monday, the JPY is now, by far, the best performer this week across G10 and Asia. While we had flagged our worries of JPY intervention early last Friday, we are more comfortable now and believe that intervention risks have receded substantially, after the two rounds of unconfirmed interventions this week.  USD/JPY easing back to 153 can be considered mission accomplished by the MOF, after it expertly executed a USD/JPY defence across a dynamic and wide trading range, deterred speculative shorts, and possibly made every intervention trade a profitable one so far. USD/JPY could consolidate around 152-155, with markets still highly wary of Japan’s intervention inclination.

The offshore RMB is set to be the second-best Asian performer this week, after the JPY. USD/CNH has eased towards 6.20, notwithstanding China being out on holidays and the lack of fixing guidance. This could be due to an unwind of RMB shorts betting on devaluation due to a weak JPY, but there is also some improvement in China real estate sentiment.  Beijing announced on Wednesday that it will end curbs on multiple home ownership in the outer areas of the city, which is significant as such properties accounted for around 80% of residential transactions in 2023. Northbound flows could pick up with the reopening of China markets next week, following a rally of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index.

The USD has broadly slipped post-FOMC, following a slide in the US2Y yield to 4.87%. Non-farm payrolls today will be the next driver for the USD, and a print of more than 240k and pick up in hourly earnings could spur a USD rebound. Meanwhile, ECB Chief Economist Lane said overnight that inflation has declined more quickly than expected, and while Fed rate moves matter, they don’t outweigh domestic issues. This prepares the ground for an ECB rate cut in June, although Lane also added that the ECB is not pre-committing to a particular rate path. We see the increased divergence between ECB and Fed to keep EUR/USD pressured.

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]
 
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