JPY intervention risks into US GDP and PCE deflator
JPY facing intervention risks
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee25 Apr 2024
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DXY appreciated by 0.2% to 105.86 ahead of significant US data releases. Today, consensus expects US advanced GDP growth to slow a second quarter to an annualized 2.5% QoQ saar in 1Q24 from 3.4% in the previous quarter. However, the US economy will be considered resilient from personal consumption growth starting the year at a pace of 3%, above the 2% average in 2022-2023. Based on past experiences, the above consensus projection by the Atlanta GDPNow model suggests positive surprises in today’s report.

Tomorrow, the US PCE deflators should mirror the stickiness in CPI inflation. Consensus sees headline and core inflation increasing a second month at the same 0.3% MoM pace in March. Barring downside surprises, these data should set a less dovish tone at the FOMC meeting on May 1. Interest rate futures have pushed out the first Fed cut to September and see only 1-2 cuts this year vs. the three rate cuts the Fed projected in March. The US Treasury 10Y yield rose 4 bps to 4.64%, eyeing the 4.69% high seen on April 16, with investors staying on the sidelines.

USD/JPY broke above 155 after US durable goods orders expanded a second month to 2.6% MoM sa in March from 0.7% in February and -6.9% in January. We cannot rule out a hawkish tone at tomorrow’s Bank of Japan meeting. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda could open the door for another rate hike later this year after assessing that there was no disruption from terminating its negative interest rate policy and yield curve control framework in March. More importantly, Tokyo has received implicit approval for intervention to address disorderly and excessive exchange rate volatility. On 17 April, the finance ministers of the US, Japan, and South Korea issued a trilateral joint statement to “consult closely” on foreign exchange rate markets. 

The USD’s strength is starting to meet policy resistance in Asia. USD/KRW peaked at 1400 on April 16 and fell to 1370 yesterday after South Korean policymakers vowed to take steps on excessive volatility. USD/IDR spiked to 16200 this month after holding a 15600-15800 range in the previous 2.5 months, prompting a surprise 25 bps rate hike to 6.50% by Bank Indonesia yesterday to widen the policy rate differential with its US counterpart. Last month, on March 21, Taiwan also surprised with a rate hike after USD/TWD hit a four-month high near 32. Targeting this month’s electricity price increases, Taiwan’s hike did not stop USD/TWD from breaching the last October’s high of 32.50 on unfavourable yield differentials. USD/THB also hit 37 this week on the country’s negative rate differentials against the US. Philippine policymakers are also delaying rate cuts after USD/PHP rose to 57.50, its highest level since November 2022. In mid-April, the IMF said foreign exchange intervention could be appropriate under situations where exchange rate volatility was excessive under disorderly market conditions.


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25 April in history
In 1953, Francis Crick and James Watson's discovery of the double helix structure of DNA was published in "Nature" magazine.







Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]


 

 
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