JPY and KRW supported by trilateral ministerial statement
Asian pushback on excessive moves.
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang18 Apr 2024
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash/Adobe Stock Photo
Read More

The DXY eased for the first time after 6 consecutive days of gains, falling below 106. This is due to markets partially reversing its upward repricing of short-term US rates, with the US 2y yield easing back to 4.93%. Still, a guarded stance is warranted as Middle East tensions persist. Israeli PM Netanyahu had affirmed that Israel will make its own decisions over a response to Iran, while Iran now warns of ‘severe’ retaliation to any new Israeli attack.  Geopolitical tensions could continue to underpin safe havens, including the USD and the CHF.

With USD strength looking to sustain, we have revised forecasts and now expect USD/JPY to peak around 155. Overnight, Japan, Korea and the US issued a trilateral ministerial statement acknowledging serious concerns over the recent sharp depreciation of the JPY and KRW, while affirming that the three countries will consult closely on FX. The inclusion of the US Treasury is notable, building on an earlier joint statement by the Japanese and Korean Finance Ministers to take appropriate action against excessive FX movements. The statement is likely intended to rein in markets and raises the possibility of a joint market intervention if JPY and KRW are to weaken further against the USD. Our model indicates that the USD/JPY level associated with significant risks of intervention has now shifted higher to 156 with broad USD strength, as Japan assesses the JPY level against a basket of other currencies that have also depreciated. Following the trilateral statement, USD/JPY had eased slightly, and could stabilize around 154 if US-JP rate differentials do not widen again. Next Friday’s BOJ meeting will yield new inflation forecasts, but expectations for a policy change are low after BOJ Governor Ueda said last week that BOJ would not change monetary policy directly in response to FX moves.

USD/KRW has eased back towards 1380 post the trilateral statement, after having tested 1400 on Tuesday. Verbal jawboning against KRW weakness has picked up even before this. BOK Governor Rhee said yesterday that recent KRW moves are a bit excessive, and the BOK has resources and tools to act on FX if needed. Meanwhile, Korea’s legislative election results last week were in line with expectations, with the opposition Democratic Party keeping its outright majority and the government still likely to see opposition to its reform agenda.

RMB has been mostly stable, with USD/CNH trading between 7.24-7.28. The RMB remains anchored by policy guidance. While the USD/CNY fixing has been adjusted marginally higher to around 7.10, it is not surprising to provide some fixing flexibility due to broad USD strength, and the move should not fan excessive depreciation expectations. We believe the authorities still desire RMB stability, and so CNY fixings could be kept at stronger than market levels for a prolonged period. China’s stronger than expected Q1 growth of 5.3% released this week could also give confidence to policymakers in keeping the RMB stable. Meanwhile, US politics are moving into election season, with Biden reportedly preparing to raise tariffs on certain Chinese steel and aluminum products. The market response to these tariffs is muted as it was read as political posturing with limited economic impact, given that only 2%-4% of US steel and aluminum imports were from China last year. Still, any response from China will be keenly watched.

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]

  

 
Subscribe here to receive our economics & macro strategy materials.
To unsubscribe, please click here.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). This report is intended for “Accredited Investors” and “Institutional Investors” (defined under the Financial Advisers Act and Securities and Futures Act of Singapore, and their subsidiary legislation), as well as “Professional Investors” (defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong) only. It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E. 

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability.  18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  13th Floor One Island East, 18 Westlands Road, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong SAR

Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply.  The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.