FX Daily: RMB’s appreciation pauses ahead of GDP and Lunar New Year
USD/RMB to hold the 6.65-6.80 range seen last May-August
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee17 Jan 2023
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The RMB depreciated most overnight by 0.6% to 6.7381 per USD. Investors took profit ahead of today’s GDP report and next week’s Lunar New Year holidays. USD/RMB fell from 7.30 in early November to 6.70 last Friday from China relaxing its Covid Zero policy, reopening its borders, and policy support to its property sector. Consensus expects China’s economy to contract by 1.1% QoQ sa in 4Q22 after a 3.9% expansion in 3Q22. Our Nowcast model points to 2.4% YoY GDP growth (vs 1.6% consensus) in 4Q22, leaving the full-year expansion at 2.9% for 2022. From here, we expect China’s growth to accelerate to 5.5%.

Markets were also disappointed that the central bank (PBOC) did not inject a net RMB100bn into the banking system this month; the lesser RMB79bn injection kept the 1Y medium-term facility rate unchanged at 2.75%. However, we expect PBOC’s monetary policy to remain supportive this year to support “fundamental housing demand” by further lowering mortgage rates and down-payment requirements. We expect the 1Y loan prime rate to drop by 20 bps to 3.45% by 3Q23.

Pay attention to the meeting between US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and senior Chinese official Liu He at the World Economic Forum in Davos. After the Xi-Biden meeting at the G20 Summit last November, investors have become more optimistic about the two largest economies smoothing economic ties amidst ongoing political tensions. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip to Beijing on 5-6 February will assess how much both sides can find middle ground on diplomatic issues. With the American and European economies weighed by high interest rates, business leaders at Davos will be keen to see China stepping up to cushion the global slowdown this year. Hence, USD/RMB may consolidate in the 6.65-6.80 range seen last May-August with a downside bias in the Year of the Rabbit.

Quote of the day
“Ambition leads me not only farther than any other man has been before me, but as far as I think it possible for man to go.”
     James Cook

17 January in history
Captain James Cook became the first navigator to cross the Antarctic Circle in 1773.

Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]



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