SGD Rates: Normalizing liquidity
Liquidity is finally improving.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow5 Jan 2023
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SGD liquidity is finally normalizing. 1M compounded SORA is now at 2.57%, compared to the peak of 3.52% seen in early December. There are other signs that term rates (1M,3M and 6M tenors) are easing. First, T bill and MAS bill rates are either peaking (or have already peaked). The most recent 1M and 3M MAS bill cut-offs registered 4.2% and 4.34% respectively, clearly lower than the previous round of auctions. Other rates including the 3M and 6M OIS also topped out in 4Q and appear to be trending lower. The overall mix is now more consistent with the period from 2004/2006 when the Fed hiked to 5.25% but short-term SGD rates barely climbed to 3.5%. This broadly echoes our view and forecast of 3M SORA OIS stabilizing around 3.58% even if the Fed funds rate goes up by another 50bps this quarter. If Fed cuts come into play in late 2023 and / or 2024, there could be further downward pressure on SORA OIS.



We see relative value in 10Y SGS versus other tenors. The 5Y/10Y spread in positive for SGS but negative for UST. We suspect that domestic considerations might be at play with the SGS calendar kicking off with a 10Y issuance in January. Some concessions are probably being built into the leadup of the auction. We would also note that a dearth of ultra-long dated issuances in the immediate few months have led to deep inversion in the 10Y/30Y segment of the curve. With no 30Y auction scheduled until September (excluding the two mini-auctions) and the 50Y reopen Green SGS (Infra) set for 2H, outperformance in the 30Y bond has been excessive. We see little value in 30Y SGS at these levels but note that catalysts for sharp shifts appear lacking. We also like 10Y SGS on an after-swap basis. This tenor compares very well to the 2Y and 5Y and also versus 10Y JGBs. Interestingly, with BOJ’s shift in YCC, 10Y SGS (after swap) also offers compelling pickup over JGBs for JPY-based investors.Taken together, there may be scope for the longer-dated SORA-SOFR basis to turn less negative on these investment flows.   

 

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]
 
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