Indonesia rates: 2024 economic priorities paint a Goldilocks backdrop
Managing inflation at 2.8% in 2024.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao17 Aug 2023
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In the annual Budget speech to the parliament on Wednesday, the government outlined its 2024 economic projections and priorities. Pegging annual growth at 5.2% (vs DBSf 5% this year), inflation is seen at the middle end of the new 1.5-3.5% target range at 2.8% (DBSf 3.7% in 2023). Fiscal consolidation will remain a priority, with the deficit target set at -2.3% of GDP vs projected -2.5% this year. The year-to-date run-rate suggests that this year’s deficit is likely to be notably narrower at ~-1.5-1.8% in midst of a steady revenues and slow growth in expenditure. A proposed IDR 108.8trn will be set aside for food security to keep prices stable, increase farm output, and expand the ongoing food estate program. Infrastructure will be allocated IDR 422.7trn including IDR 40.6trn towards the construction of the new capital Nusantara. Plans are to set-up the housing facilities in time for the civil servants, military, and police to shift to the new city next year. On the financial markets, USDIDR is assumed at 15000 from 14800 this year, with the 10Y yield at 6.7% vs the prevailing 6.4% (please see the Rates Strategy section for our market outlook).

The country heads towards the Presidential elections in February 2024, with the incumbent President Jokowi currently in his second and last term in office. Amongst the front runners, the candidacy of Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto received a shot in the arm from the recent endorsement of country’s second largest Golkar party. This takes the nominating coalition to four key parties, who add up to over 40% of the parliamentary seats, well above the required 20% cut-off. He is ahead of the other two top contenders, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan. Other key aspects under watch are which candidate receives the incumbent President’s official backing, apart from their Vice President candidates before the nomination window in Oct-Nov23.

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]
 
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