Thailand chart book – Asia’s safe haven


Thai markets have been remarkably untouched by the selloff in Asia this year.
Radhika Rao11 Oct 2018
Photo credit: AFP Photo


• The economy is on course to expand 4.5% YoY, after a strong 1H18 and up from 3.9% in 2017. Base effects and some spillover impact from rising trade protectionism might moderate 2019 growth to 4.2%.
• The external sector has yet far belied concerns over a negative impact from US-China trade disputes, with strong exports trend helping to keep the current account surplus at 9.5-10% of GDP this year, before slowing to 8% in 2019.
• Inflation has shrugged off a slow start to the year, lifted by supply-side pressures, particularly high oil prices. We expect full-year inflation to average 1.3% YoY, before rising to 1.6% next year on a higher core.
• The Bank of Thailand signaled its readiness to normalize rates, but a hike is not imminent given manageable inflation and a stable currency.
• Policy tightening expectations might resurface late-2018 and early next as the US continues to hike rates, and the spillover impact weighs on EM. An upside surprise in Thai growth could also be another catalyst for the BOT to hike in 2019.





To read the full report, click here to Download the PDF.

Radhika Rao

Economist - Eurozone & India
radhikarao@dbs.com

 

The information published by DBS Bank Ltd. (company registration no.: 196800306E) (“DBS”) is for information only.  It is based on information or opinions obtained from sources believed to be reliable (but which have not been independently verified by DBS, its related companies and affiliates (“DBS Group”)) and to the maximum extent permitted by law, DBS Group does not make any representation or warranty (express or implied) as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose.  Opinions and estimates are subject to change without notice.  The publication and distribution of the information does not constitute nor does it imply any form of endorsement by DBS Group of any person, entity, services or products described or appearing in the information.  Any past performance, projection, forecast or simulation of results is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of any investment or securities.  Foreign exchange transactions involve risks.  You should note that fluctuations in foreign exchange rates may result in losses.  You may wish to seek your own independent financial, tax, or legal advice or make such independent investigations as you consider necessary or appropriate.

The information published is not and does not constitute or form part of any offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation to subscribe to or to enter into any transaction; nor is it calculated to invite, nor does it permit the making of offers to the public to subscribe to or enter into any transaction in any jurisdiction or country in which such offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation is not authorised or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation or where such offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject DBS Group to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country, and should not be viewed as such.  Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing, the information, services or products described or appearing in the information are not specifically intended for or specifically targeted at the public in any specific jurisdiction.

The information is the property of DBS and is protected by applicable intellectual property laws. No reproduction, transmission, sale, distribution, publication, broadcast, circulation, modification, dissemination, or commercial exploitation such information in any manner (including electronic, print or other media now known or hereafter developed) is permitted.

DBS Group and its respective directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services to any persons or entities mentioned.

To the maximum extent permitted by law, DBS Group accepts no liability for any losses or damages (including direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental or loss of profits) of any kind arising from or in connection with any reliance and/or use of the information (including any error, omission or misstatement, negligent or otherwise) or further communication, even if DBS Group has been advised of the possibility thereof. 

The information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is distributed (a) in Singapore, by DBS Bank Ltd.; (b) in China, by DBS Bank (China) Ltd; (c) in Hong Kong, by DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited; (d) in Taiwan, by DBS Bank (Taiwan) Ltd; (e) in Indonesia, by PT DBS Indonesia; and (f) in India, by DBS Bank Ltd, Mumbai Branch.