Thailand chart book – Asia’s safe haven


Thai markets have been remarkably untouched by the selloff in Asia this year.
Radhika Rao11 Oct 2018
Photo credit: AFP Photo


• The economy is on course to expand 4.5% YoY, after a strong 1H18 and up from 3.9% in 2017. Base effects and some spillover impact from rising trade protectionism might moderate 2019 growth to 4.2%.
• The external sector has yet far belied concerns over a negative impact from US-China trade disputes, with strong exports trend helping to keep the current account surplus at 9.5-10% of GDP this year, before slowing to 8% in 2019.
• Inflation has shrugged off a slow start to the year, lifted by supply-side pressures, particularly high oil prices. We expect full-year inflation to average 1.3% YoY, before rising to 1.6% next year on a higher core.
• The Bank of Thailand signaled its readiness to normalize rates, but a hike is not imminent given manageable inflation and a stable currency.
• Policy tightening expectations might resurface late-2018 and early next as the US continues to hike rates, and the spillover impact weighs on EM. An upside surprise in Thai growth could also be another catalyst for the BOT to hike in 2019.





To read the full report, click here to Download the PDF.

Radhika Rao

Economist - Eurozone & India
radhikarao@dbs.com

 

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and PT Bank DBS Indonesia (collectively, the “DBS Group”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Group does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation & the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only & is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Group, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Group or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Group & its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, & may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein & may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking & other banking or finan­cial services for these companies. The information herein is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Sources for all charts & tables are CEIC & Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Blvd, Marina Bay Financial Center Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.

PT Bank DBS Indonesia, DBS Bank Tower, 33rd floor, Ciputra World 1, Jalan Prof. Dr. Satrio Kav 3-5, Jakarta, 12940, Indonesia. Tel: 62-21-2988-4000. Company Registration No. 09.03.1.64.96422.