Weekly: Markets Turn as China Eases Covid Policy
Keep abreast of market moving events with CIO's weekly bulletin
Chief Investment Office12 Dec 2022
  • Equities: US PPI in November sees DM equities slip while China reopening stokes APAC sentiments
  • FX: DXY, EUR, and GBP not expected to break out of current ranges; FFR to rise another 50bps in 1Q23
  • Rates: Market pricing another 50bps hike at this week’s FOMC meeting
  • Thematics: China’s pure EV players take centre stage as electrification intensifies
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DM down on inflation worries while EM gains on China reopening. Global equities saw mixed performance last week (ended 9 December); DM fell on renewed worries of an economic downturn while EM saw sentiment turn positive on the back of easing Covid policies in China. Global equities fell 2.2% for the week, led by DM’s 2.6% loss; EM gained 0.5%.

US snapped its winning streak as November’s producer price index came in higher than expected, raising concerns that the Fed may continue its aggressive tightening stance. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones closed -3.4%, -4.0%, and -0.9% lower respectively for the week. Europe equities fell as concerns of a hard landing next year continue to mount; the Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 dipped -0.9% and -1.1% for the week. Asian equities rallied as China ended Covid lockdowns and testing requirements for regional travel. Investor sentiment was further buoyed by reports that Hong Kong is considering lifting its outdoor mask mandate; HSCEI and Hang Seng were up 7.3% and 6.6% respectively.

Topic in focus: Japan’s domestic consumption revival. Many catalysts are in place for a blow-out quarter for private consumption as Japan re-opened its borders in October, just in time for the peak winter holiday season. Positive momentum is expected to carry on to the new year for the following reasons:
  1. Japan is a favourite travel destination for many other Asian countries and these countries have also just lifted travel restrictions, either partially or fully
  2. The cheap yen has made it even more attractive to travel and spend in Japan
  3. Government subsidised domestic “Go-to-Travel” programme will end on 31 December,  driving a rush to utilise the spending vouchers by end of the year
  4. Apparel retailers should benefit from the seasonal change after two years of lockdowns
  5. Domestic consumer sentiments lifted by supplementary budget to ease negative impact from high inflation
We expect earnings to recover in hotels, restaurants, retail, travel, and consumer spending-related operations. These also include companies that manage IT solutions for the sector as it is confronted with labour shortage and the need for improved productivity, given Japan’s shrinking population. For that matter, Japan reported only 600K births this year, hitting its projection of 740K in 2040 earlier than expected by 18 years.




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Note: All views expressed are current as at the stated date of publication

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