Hong Kong Property (Retail)
Retail market sees robust but uneven recovery.
Group Research - Equities31 May 2023
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Overall Outlook

Retail market sees robust but uneven recovery. Primarily boosted by the return of tourist spending, Hong Kong’s overall retail sales value jumped 24% in 1Q23 led by discretionary items. Jewellery and fashion goods were the main growth drivers, with sales surging 88% and 70% respectively in the same period, recovering to 65% and 73% of 1Q19’s levels. On the other hand, recovery for cosmetic sales lagged. Shopping landmarks have seen a more meaningful recovery with tenants’ sales at selected malls now back to pre-COVID levels. We also believe Tsim Sha Tsui would have outperformed other core retail districts. Continued inbound tourism recovery augurs well for retail sales in Hong Kong, which is forecast to rise 15-20% in 2023. Against this backdrop, turnover rents are expected to receive a strong boost and make up as much as 18-20% of income of shopping landmarks in 2023. Moreover, with occupancy cost ratios improving to healthy levels prior to COVID outbreak, retail reversionary growth for prime shopping malls is set to turn positive gradually.

Key Industry Trends

Tourist spending breathing new life into retail market. Hong Kong overall retail sales jumped 17.3% y-o-y in the first two months of 2023. This was mainly driven by the return of tourist spending since the border re-opening with China in early 2023 and a low comparison base from the disruptions caused by the Omicron outbreak in early 2022. The y-o-y growth was even higher in Mar-23, with the sales climbing 40.9% y-o-y, alongside a stronger inbound tourism recovery. Overall, total retail sales in Hong Kong jumped 24.1% y-o-y to HK$102.8bn in 1Q23, recovering to 80% of 1Q19’s level (1Q22: 64.5%).

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