Rupiah assets remain sensitive to domestic political developments. IDR NDF weakened briefly yesterday on a newsbreak that lawmakers were mulling over changes to the central bank’s mandate, while permitting the parliament to have a say in the dismissal of BI’s board of governors within their term, if needed. There were no further details, but investors were jittery over signs of any compromise to BI’s independence. Reaction to another tranche of stimulus measures was muted due to its modest scale. Measures worth IDR 16trn (0.06% of GDP) was announced, referred to as the “8+4+5” package i.e., eight short-term acceleration steps in Sep-Dec25, few of which will be extended in 2026, and five longer-term initiatives targeting labour absorption. Measures in 4Q seek to address few of the livelihood demand of protestors, including extension of food aid (e.g, rice supplies), tax exemptions for workers in the tourism sector, work accident/ unemployment insurance coverage for motorcycle taxi drivers, funded internships for fresh graduates, amongst others. Two gig workers’ labour groups reportedly plan to hold a rally on Wednesday to call for reforms and changes in the Transport Ministry. Since assuming office, the Finance and Economic teams have announced measures to boost demand and spur credit growth (New Finance Minister takes action).
As the fiscal pedal meets the metal, Bank Indonesia is expected to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.0% on Wednesday after two back-to-back cuts. BI meets a day ahead of the US FOMC decision, where the Fed is expected to resume policy easing. We view BI’s pause as temporary, as policymakers take stock of recent rupiah volatility in wake of protests and cabinet reshuffle, transmission of rate cuts undertaken this year and firm food inflation in the near-term. Food (and beverages) inflation rose by the fastest pace in a year at 4% yoy in August. This was partly driven by a jump in average retail prices of rice by 4% yoy in August vs -0.9% y/y in 1Q25, besides the rice PPI rising 6.0% yoy vs -2.4% in 1Q25. Rice supply is expected to be beefed up by more than 1.0mn tons under the Food Supply and Price Stabilisation (SPHP) program from the State Logistics Agency (Bulog), besides other premium variants. We expect the central bank to adopt a data dependent stance in 4Q25, as we hold on to our call for a 25bp cut by year-end. IDR bonds, meanwhile, regained ground after recent volatility, but room for sharper gains are limited as markets assess the new Finance Minister’s growth plans and its fiscal implications.
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