The global bond market has experienced extraordinary volatility amid heightened trade tensions and worries about public debt. Asian government bonds may not be immune to the sell-off, but the impact is expected to be manageable. The weaker US dollar (see: FX Quarterly 2Q 25: Cracks in the USD’s status) creates an opportunity for Asian central banks to cut rates. Note that most EM-Asian currencies have appreciated against the US dollar by 1-3% in May, except for the INR. The spreads between EM Asia govvies and UST have room to compress further, making Asian fixed income attractive from a total return perspective in local currency (LCY) terms.
Reflecting this, Emerging Market Asia bond funds received USD 3.5 billion inflows since mid-April, with China alone attracting USD 2 billion. China’s 10-year CGB yield edged up by 6bps this month, largely due to favorable trade talks with the US. Recent monetary easing and rate cuts will keep CGB yields in check (see: China: PBOC ramps up easing to spur growth). Other Emerging Market-Asia government bonds performed well, with 10-year yields of India, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia falling by 3-8bps on rising rate cut expectations. Korean KTBs saw more apparent sell-off amid concerns about the supplementary spending plan approved earlier this month. Yet, the total return could be partially cushioned by the strengthening KRW exchange rates.
Following the G3, 10-year yields of DM-Asia economies like Singapore and Hong Kong rose in May, albeit by a smaller magnitude of 6bps and 8bps month-to-date, respectively. Ample liquidity allows these two small open economies to keep rates in check. In particular, Hong Kong’s interbank liquidity, as depicted by the Aggregate Balance, jumped fourfold this month. This comes after the recent HKMA intervention when USD/HKD hit the strong side of the trading band earlier this month.
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