India bonds: Maiden green bond and FY24 Budget in focus
Focus on FY24 borrowings in upcoming Budget
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao25 Jan 2023
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INR GSec bonds face a busy auction calendar this week before the FY24 Budget outlines the borrowing program on Feb 1. Besides the routine weekly sale on Friday, state/UT securities worth INR 256bn and a maiden green bond worth INR 80bn (~$990mn) of 5y as well as 10y tenor are lined up this week. The remaining tranche of INR 80bn green bonds will be raised on Feb 9. Domestic investors including state-run insurers, pension funds and banks are expected to show interest, incentivised by such purchases being allowed to be treated as part of insurers’ infra investments, and for banks as part of its mandatory bond holdings. Foreign investors will be allowed to purchase these securities under the FAR (Fully Accessible Route) window i.e., free of restrictions. Two aspects will be of interest, a) whether these bonds are cost-effective i.e., cheaper than conventional bonds or command a ‘greenium’, and b) domestic investors are likely to dominate the demand pool, an eye will also be on the appetite for rupee-denominated green bonds by global fund houses, as opposed to the dominance of hard currency green papers in the offshore markets.

Forward-looking direction for bond yields will hinge on the make-up of the FY24 borrowings. Working with our estimate of FY24 fiscal deficit at -5.9% of GDP (India Budget preview: Macro stability and growth), the centre’s gross bond issuance is likely in the region of INR 15.5trn vs NR 14.4trn this year. Including states’ borrowings, cumulative borrowings are poised to INR23-24trn in next FY. The RBI did not actively participate with OMOs this year as the bond supply was absorbed well. However, they might be required to step in FY24 as the issuance is likely to coincide with thinner liquidity surplus (might slip in deficit later in 2023) and pick up in banks’ incremental credit deposit ratio, restricting demand for incremental bond supply. Either way, domestic investors will be key in the bond markets, much like recent years, while markets eye announcements to facilitate inclusion of INR bonds into global indices.

 

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]
 
 
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