Malaysia: BNM pause ahead after surprise hold
BNM prioritized growth over inflation.
Group Research - Econs, Chua Han Teng20 Jan 2023
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Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kicked off its first policy meeting of 2023 by maintaining its overnight policy rate (OPR) at 2.75% on Jan 19, against market expectations for a 25bps hike. Having said previously that its policy was not on any pre-set course, BNM decided that the pause would allow it to assess the impact of the 100bps worth of hikes (four back-to-back increases) undertaken since May 2022. It mentioned that this is given the lag effects of monetary policy on the economy.

We think that BNM is set for a prolonged pause, as it appears to place a higher emphasis on Malaysia’s softer growth outlook in 2023 over elevated inflation levels, coupled with a shift in guidance. The central bank expects growth in the relatively open economy to moderate in 2023 driven by slower global growth, in line with our view. It highlighted various downside risks, despite acknowledging supportive domestic demand. The risks included weaker-than-expected growth in major economies – but recognising China’s improved outlook after the current pandemic wave eases, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, sharp financing condition tightening, and resurfacing of supply chain disruptions. The central bank expects Malaysia’s headline and core inflation to be elevated but cool in 2023, and appears comforted that price pressures would be contained by domestic price controls and fuel subsidies as well as spare economic capacity. Concerns on the ringgit’s volatility were omitted following the currency’s appreciation from late-Nov 2022 amid peak US dollar and much reduced domestic political risk premium.

On forward guidance, BNM left its policy options open regarding further normalisation depending on economic conditions and the impact on the growth and domestic inflation outlook. We sense a higher reluctance towards additional hikes. January’s meeting guidance marked a dovish shift from its previous signal for a measured and gradual approach towards any policy adjustments. The re-tabling of Budget 2023 on Feb 24 would also be a key input in BNM’s policy assessment, beyond growth performance and uncertainties. Potential shifts from Prime Minister Anwar-led government’s review of the subsidies program to contain spending and high government debt might spark upside inflation risks, bringing back the debate of monetary tightening to anchor price expectations. 

Chua Han Teng, CFA

Economist - Asean
[email protected]  
 
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