- Banking
- Wealth
- Privileges
- NRI Banking
- Treasures Private Client
Related Insights
US Treasuries rallied sharply post CPI with belly tenors (3Y,5Y and 7Y) benefitting from a benign inflation print. Headline and core CPI were in line with consensus at -0.1% MoM and 0.3% MoM respectively. With market participants also anticipating a weak CPI print (yields sharply lower and DXY weaker ahead of the print), it was interesting to note that yields still followed through lower. Doves are probably comforted that the Atlanta Fed’s core sticky CPI less the shelter measure is barely running at 2% on a 3-month annualized basis. This is arguably the best single measure that strips out the lagging shelter component (which is still propping up headline CPI). Accordingly, market pricing of the terminal rate is now a tad below 5% with another Fed downshift to 25bps at the next meeting largely priced. This is in line with our view that the runway for hikes is getting short.
With CPI cooling off and the labour market still somewhat resilient, the current mix point to a more benign investment environment (either Goldilocks or mild recession). Clearly, there are still deeper slowdown risks as exhibited by the collapse in services ISM. However, from a rates perspective, it is no longer convincing for the Fed to insist on hiking rates to weaken the labour market in order to cool off rampant inflation. We still like steepening in the 2Y/10Y, 5Y/10Y and 5Y/30Y segments of the curve as the market shifts away from stagflationary pessimism. For receive 2Y/5Y/10Y fly (another one of our favourite ideas), we think current levels look a tad stretched. On balance, we think that downside to longer-term US yields (10Y and beyond) might be limited. We are in the soft landing camp and if the risks of an overly aggressive Fed gets diminished, optimism in the global economy might lift longer-term yields. Meanwhile, there might also further steepening pressures on the UST curve if the BOJ takes another steps towards tightening (another widening in YCC for example).
Topic
Explore more
E & S Macro StrategyThe information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). This report is intended for “Accredited Investors” and “Institutional Investors” (defined under the Financial Advisers Act and Securities and Futures Act of Singapore, and their subsidiary legislation), as well as “Professional Investors” (defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong) only. It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies. The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.
This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.
DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.
DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability. 13th Floor One Island East, 18 Westlands Road, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong SAR
Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply. The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.