FX Daily: US CPI pounded DXY closer to support levels
DXY support levels around 101.6-101.9.
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee13 Jan 2023
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DXY depreciated 0.9% to 102.24, its lowest close since 2 June. Investors were heartened by the 0.1% MoM fall in CPI inflation in December. In year-on-year terms, headline inflation fell to 6.5%, its lowest level since October 2021. US bond yields eased and equities rose on increased expectations for a smaller Fed hike to 4.5-4.75% at the FOMC meeting on 1 February.  The US Treasury 2Y and 10Y yields fell by 8.6 and 9.6 bps, respectively, to 4.13% and 3.44%. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.6%, 0.3%, and 0.6%, respectively. S&P did not break above 4000 and Nasdaq met resistance at 11000.

The next support levels for the DXY are 101.9(price channel floor) and 101.6 (low in late May). Investors were too hasty in brushing aside the rise in core CPI inflation to 0.3% MoM from 0.2%. Fed officials continued to push back the market’s bets for rate cuts in the latter half of 2023, committed to lifting and keeping the Fed Funds Rate restrictive above 5% this year. The four-week moving average for US initial claims fell a fifth week to 212.5k for the 7 January week, its lowest level since mid-October. The Fed considers the tight labour market a challenge to bring down inflation in non-housing related core services, which accounts for 55% of the PCE core deflator.

Hence, markets might be disappointed if they look for downside surprises in today’s University of Michigan’s (UoM) consumer survey. Consensus reckons the better-than-expected jobs readings may lift consumer sentiment from 59.7 in December to a preliminary 60.7 in January, above 60 for the first time since April. The fall in 1Y inflation expectations to a preliminary 4.3% in January from 4.4% in December will not lower the Fed’s guard against complacency to bring inflation back to its 2% target. The market will also want to see ifMinneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari maintains his call for the FFR to peak at a higher 5.4% after yesterday’s US CPI data.

Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]



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