FX Daily: DXY could break higher
DXY could trade a higher 105-107 range
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee6 Jan 2023
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DXY appreciated 0.9% to 105.14, slightly above the 103.4-105 range set after the smaller 50 bps Fed hike to 4.25-4.5% in mid-December. Fed Presidents started 2023 by pushing back the market’s bets for rate cuts later this year. Esther George (Kansas City) sees the Fed Funds Rate (FRR) holding above 5% into 2024. Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis) wants the FFR to rise to 5.4%, above the 5.1% pencilled in last month’s Summary of Economic Projections. James Bullard (St Louis) reckoned more hikes will be necessary for the policy rate to be sufficiently restrictive. Today, Raphael Bostic (Atlanta), Thomas Barkin (Richmond), and George will discuss the outlook while Fed Governor Lisa Cook tackles inflation. Next Tuesday, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the international symposium organized by Sweden’s Riksbank.

Although US CPI inflation fell to 7.1% YoY in November from its peak of 9.1% in June, the Fed still considers it too high above its 2% target. The IMF warned that US inflation has yet to turn the corner despite expecting a third of the world to be in recession. The Fed attributed the initial fall in inflation from its peak to the drop in goods inflation and easing supply disruptions. The Fed needs to see progress in the other two inflation components – housing and core services. Inflation from the housing sector needs time to work through the backlog of new rent renewals. More importantly, the tight labour market remains challenging to bring down inflation in non-housing related core services, which accounts for 55% of the PCE core deflator. Hence, pay attention to prices paid in today’s ISM services PMI report.



Understandably, markets are nervous about today’s US monthly jobs report. Although consensus expects nonfarm payrolls to slow to 203k in December from 263k in November, ADP employment did jump to 235k (vs 150k consensus) from 182k (revised from 127k). Initial jobless claims also fell to 204k (vs 225k consensus) for the week ending 31 December from 223k the previous week. With the unemployment rate low at 3.7%, average hourly earnings growth is strong, around 5% YoY. DXY can recoup more lost ground if a still-robust jobs report withdraws bets for a smaller 25 bps hike at the FOMC meeting on 1 February in favour of a second 50 bps hike. If DXY pushes above its price channel, it could hold a higher 105-107 range.

Quote of the day
“I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught.”
     Winston Churchill

6 January in history
Vietnam held its first general election in 1946.








Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 

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