Credit: China’s support for property sector
Policy supports modest property sector recovery after Covid abates
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang16 Dec 2022
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A measure that allows cities to reduce (or remove) the minimum mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers has been extended. The conditions are if there were three consecutive m/m and y/y declines in the prices of new property in the city. This measure increases flexibility at the local level to tweak mortgage rates based on local dynamics, and was first announced in September and originally scheduled to end by Q4. Now, the removal of an end-date for this policy signals a stronger intent to support property sales, reassure first-time homebuyers and facilitate the real estate industry’s recovery. The move further reinforces China’s broad-based policy shift towards supporting growth and foreign investor confidence. Beyond China’s remarkable U-turn on its zero-Covid stance and new real estate support measures, there are also signs of more constructive diplomacy with Western trading partners, and an easing of its regulatory clampdown of the tech giants. Policymakers are definitely stepping up to the plate this year.

As stated in our 2023 outlook (see here), we believe credit of stronger Chinese developers should turn the corner this year amid significant policy support. Despite a poor official PMI read for Dec, we think sentiment in the private sector is already improving, evident from a rise in the December Caixin Services PMI to 48.0 (Nov: 46.7). Once the current wave of Covid infections abate, we could start to see a modest recovery in Chinese property sales, which should reinforce investor confidence towards credit of quality developers.

 

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist, Global
[email protected]


 
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