FX Daily: Monday’s breather, Barr’s testimony, and US consumer confidence
Watch present situation in today’s US consumer confidence report
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee28 Mar 2023
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash Photo
Read More

Markets took a breather on Monday from easing bank fears amid recession worries. DXY depreciated 0.3% to 102.9 with strong support around 102. JPY crosses rallied on improved risk appetite. Except for a weaker JPY (-0.6%), DXY components gained led by CAD (+0.6%) and CHF (0.5%), followed by GBP (0.4%) and EUR (+0.4%). Dow and S&P 500 rose by 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation announced that First Citizens BancShare agreed to buy parts of Silicon Valley Bank. The Fed is reportedly mulling expanding its Bank Term Funding Program to boost liquidity and safeguard deposits, a measure that would give more time to First Republic Bank.

According to his prepared remarks, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will testify to the Senate Banking Committee today that Silicon Valley Bank was a “textbook case of mismanagement.” Barr will seek to reassure that the banking system is sound and resilient with strong capital and liquidity and that the Fed will use its tools, when needed, to keep it that way. However, we remain wary of volatility from today’s testimony turning into a blame game between the Democrats and GOP lawmakers with the Fed also in crosshair.

US Treasury 2Y yield rose 23 bps to 4% while the 10Y yield firmed 15.4 bps to 3.53%. Apart from easing bank fears, consensus expects Friday’s US PCE deflator inflation to halve to 0.3% MoM in February from 0.6% in January and core deflator inflation to 0.4% from 0.6%. However, in year-on-year terms, headline and core inflation are expected to hold above the 2% target at 5.1% and 4.7%, respectively. Brent crude oil prices increased 4.2% to USD78.20 per barrel, its largest single-day increase since 30 December. Turkey halted oil production from Kurdistan while Russia is on track to cut crude output by 500k barrels per day to 9.5 million. China National Petroleum Corp forecasts a 6.2% increase in China’s crude oil imports to 10.8 million bpd this year. Markets will pay attention to inventory data by the American Petroleum Institute today and the US Energy Information Administration tomorrow.

Quote of the day
“So I would like to say that inflation will return to 2% soon, but we have to do it in a way that does not damage the economy any more than necessary. That’s what we are trying to do.””
     Fed Governor Philip Jefferson

28 March in history
In 1935, Robert Goddard used gyroscopes to control a rocket.



Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]


Subscribe here to receive our economics & macro strategy materials.
To unsubscribe, please click here.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). This report is intended for “Accredited Investors” and “Institutional Investors” (defined under the Financial Advisers Act and Securities and Futures Act of Singapore, and their subsidiary legislation), as well as “Professional Investors” (defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong) only. It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E. 

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability.  18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  13th Floor One Island East, 18 Westlands Road, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong SAR

Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply.  The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.