Fixed Income Weekly: Spreads Widen as Investors Await Fed’s Next Move
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Chief Investment Office27 Apr 2023
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FOCUS OF THE WEEK

USD Rates: Market conviction wavers on the next hike. Deterioration in sentiment over the past few trading days drove US Treasury yields back into their banking crisis levels. 2Y yields closed below 4% while 10Y yields dipped to 3.40%. Weakness across banking stocks in Europe led the risk off sentiment, but this was followed through in the US session even as data was mixed (new home sales beat expectations at 683k while the Conference Board consumer sentiment underwhelmed at 101.3).

We are wary of downside risks and think that the widely expected last 25 bps hike next week might not be quite cast in stone. With the Fed on blackout, data and sentiment could well shift pricing materially. Last night, the odds of a hike dipped as low as 70%. We would also note that the market participants are not comfortable pricing in a full hike for May since the bank failures.

We are similarly cautious from a strategy point of view and see short term USD rates as good risk to reward if things go awry. Between US GDP figures and another set of banking sector data later this week, the market has plenty to chew on. Moreover, our analysis suggests that banking system stress has not abated sufficiently. Throw in a debt ceiling mix (the Treasury could run of cash around mid-June) and it becomes clear that the coming weeks could well be volatile. A rate hike next week might well be judged to do more harm (adding more stresses) than good, depending on how sentiment shifts.

Credit spread movements. Credit spreads widened across the board week-on-week, with lower quality bond spreads widening to a larger extent. This comes against uncertainty regarding the Fed’s rate decision next week, while data such as last Thursday’s US initial jobless claims report suggests signs of growing weaknesses in the US economy.

Changes in Spreads (bps)

Source: Bloomberg, DBS

MARKET ACTIVITY & PIPELINE OBSERVATIONS

Asia ex-Japan USD Primary Market

Asia ex-Japan USD primary market activity picked up in the week ended 21 April with a total of USD3.8b printed across five transactions. Funding conditions were constructive as we saw issuers across Asia print sizable market-driven transactions with reasonable new issue concession.

Secondary Markets

The market had a few constructive sessions during the week, digesting the ramp-up in new issuances. Fund flows were supportive, with significant secondary activity. The IG space was in a firmer tone, boosted by multiple new issues across the regions. Activity on the new CKHH issue was keen and the 5/10Y traded tight to +98/+127 bps upon its first day of trading before profit takers set in. Trading activity lightened towards the end of the week, though the issues remained balanced and traded in a range.

The desk also saw two-way interest on AIA33 and buying interest in HKAA30. Short-dated papers continue to see buying interest with higher UST yields. Tech names were slightly firmer in the stronger names with buyers in 5Y and shorter tenor papers. The desk was lifted in BABA27 and TENCNT28, while the longer tenor papers were unchanged.

SGD flows constructive as the underlying tone remained firm, with broad-based activity from both institutional and retail accounts. Selective institutional accounts sought to deploy cash in the 1 to 3-year space, while the desk saw sellers in more recent senior issuances and financial tier 2s. Retail flows were balanced with activities revolving mainly around IG corporate perpetuals and financial AT1s.

SECTOR COMMENTARY

Metals & Mining: Coal-centric companies face price volatility and elevating ESG pressure

  • We anticipate earnings for Glencore Plc, PT Adaro Energy Tbk, and PT Indika Energy Tbk with coal exposure will moderate this year, driven by softening coal prices.
  • Despite a moderate coal price environment and greater capital needs to meet ESG objectives, our covered companies have the operational efficiencies with low cash cost that could partially offset the lower average selling prices
  • Active debt capital management provides them with greater financial flexibility to a narrowing funding channel amid the decarbonisation trend. Successful expansion in non-coal businesses could help broaden their earnings base and expand their access to funding in the medium to long term
  • Given the cyclical industry nature, we advise turning defensive and would recommend sticking to IG names that feature a more diversified commodity profile, which supports greater access to funding

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Note: All views expressed are current as at the stated date of publication

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