Equities Weekly: Big Tech Shows Early Signs of Resilience
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Chief Investment Office26 Apr 2023
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US Equities: Renewed optimism as first Tech names to report surprise on upside. The mood was sombre heading into this earnings season, with investors expecting an average decline in EPS of 6.2%. However, the first Tech names to report results have defied this negative sentiment; Microsoft and Google surprised on the upside, posting beats on both their 1Q23 income and earnings. So far, around 18% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported results for 1Q23, with 76% reporting actual EPS above estimates but below the 5-year average of 77%.

While rates have continued to climb, Big Tech has held up well, in anticipation of the Fed pivoting to end its rate hike stance. Investors will be keen to see if the myriad cost-cutting measures undertaken across the sector over the past two quarters have been able to sustain profit margins amid slowing revenue growth. On the interest rate front, policy rates have been kept restrictive (due to persistent inflation) despite the earnings downgrades – it is worth noting that in past cycles, the Fed started easing as soon as EPS growth turned negative (Figure 1). However, a respite may be within sight as recent financial sector stress could see the Fed easing its rate hiking trajectory sooner rather than later. This will undoubtedly offer support for the Technology sector.

Equity fund flows: No rest for the weary. Last week (ended 19 April) saw DM Equity Funds recording their seventh outflow in the past 10 weeks as US and Europe each surrendered over USD900m.  Tighter credit conditions in Europe contributed to a sixth consecutive weekly equity fund outflow for the region. On the other hand, renewed enthusiasm for China’s economic rebound saw EM Equity Funds recording their 12th inflow of 2023. China Equity Funds pulled in over USD2b for the fifth time so far this year, with flows into funds domiciled outside China hitting their highest level since the first week of February.

Figure 1: The Fed is late in easing rates this cycle

Source: Bloomberg, DBS

 

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