Multi-Asset Weekly: Investors Weigh Banking Crisis
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Chief Investment Office27 Mar 2023
  • Equities: Markets rose slightly amid banking sector chaos; Big Tech gained on interest rate outlook
  • Credit: Cash to suffer after Fed pause and lower rates environment provides tailwinds for IG credit
  • FX: DXY to end 1Q inside 101-106 range; AUD and CAD trended south amid lower commodity prices
  • Rates: Rate cuts potentially needed to ease banking sector outflows; short end yields to stay down
  • Thematics: We expect 2023 to be an inflexion point for the technology sector
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Global equities rose as US regulators commit to ring-fence banking system stress. Markets shrugged off global banking sector woes after comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen that regulators are prepared to take more action if needed, to stabilise US banks. Global equities were up 1.5%, with Developed Markets and Emerging Markets rising 1.4% and 2.2% respectively.

US equities rose for the week, led Big Tech names; Apple and Microsoft climbed 9% and 12% respectively this month. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow were up 1.4%, 1.7%, and 1.2% respectively. Europe closed marginally higher after positive comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde regarding euro area banking sector resilience; the FTSE 100 and Stoxx 600 gained 1.0% and 0.9%. Asian equities traded gingerly as China industrial output undershot the consensus forecast, the HSI and SHCMOP gained 2.0% and 0.5% for the week.

Topic in focus: China financials are an oasis of calm. To support economic revival, Premier Li Qiang announced a 5% GDP growth target for 2023 during the National Party Congress. China financials have been resilient during last year’s market rout as it concluded the year flat despite declines in global (-18%) and Asia ex-Japan equities (-21%).

Unscathed by banking debacle in developed markets. We maintain our constructive stance that China’s large State-owned Enterprise (SOE) banks are insulated from the situations faced by banks in the developed markets, owing to the former’s traditional business models such as domestic centric revenue and balance sheets, anchored by conventional deposits and loans. They are also known for strong local branding and branch networks with access to cheap Current Account Savings Account (CASA) funding, and the discipline to stay away from exotic deposits and loans.

These banks are well positioned as income generators in the CIO Barbell Strategy for their attractive and sustainable dividend yields of 7-8%, supported by the sector’s compelling valuations on the back of stable earnings trend. As such, we continue to advocate China financials as part of a holistic portfolio strategy construct.

Figure 1: China banks’ focused on growing domestic loans

Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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