Multi-Asset Weekly: Markets Brace for More Turmoil
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Chief Investment Office20 Mar 2023
  • Equities: US equities traded higher as markets expect lower interest rate hikes after banking crisis
  • Credit: We reiterate preference for quality credit over cash for risk diversification
  • FX: DXY and its components struggled on heightened volatility over banking risks; USD/CNH stable
  • Rates: Fed to hike by 25 bps and take FFR to 5%; Terminal rate of 5-5.5% reasonable
  • Thematics: We remain constructive on aviation due to the nascent recovery in APAC and promising data
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Market traded mixed amid volatility in the banking sector. Volatility dominated sentiments last week (ended 17 March) with major indices turning in mixed performances. This was driven mainly by concerns revolving around the prevailing banking crisis. Global equities were down -0.1%, with Developed Markets remaining flat and Emerging Markets dipping -0.4%.

US equities rose on the back of expectations that the Fed will tone down its hawkish rhetoric amid the current banking fiasco. S&P 500 and NASDAQ gained 1.4% and 4.4% respectively, while Dow dipped -0.1%. Europe ended the week in negative territory on the back of the European Central Bank rate hike and concerns on Credit Suisse’s financial stability. The FTSE 100 and Stoxx 600 lost -5.3% and -3.8% respectively.

Topic in focus: Swiss National Bank’s swift actions to address contagion risks resulting from the failure of a Swiss large bank should safeguard against a systemic banking crisis from materialising. An index of European banks has fallen 12% last week. Despite the takeover by another Swiss Bank in a historic government-brokered deal, we believe the recovery of the sector may take some time as it is unlikely to be immune from potential losses from counterparty risks, increased loss provisions, and capital write-offs, which will have a real impact on earnings and valuations. Going forward, tighter monetary conditions and greater risk awareness will also dampen credit growth and fee. We continue to stay negative on the sector.

We reiterate our Underweight stance in Europe equities. Notwithstanding the current de-risking in markets, we believe there is an opportunity to take positions in some high-quality stocks in the Technology, Luxury, and Healthcare sectors following their recent sharp declines as bond yields head lower.

Figure 1: Monetary conditions are already tight, and should tighten further
Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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