China Financials: Oasis of Calm
Compelling valuations make China's financials sector an attractive component of a holistic portfolio strategy construct
Chief Investment Office, Yeang Cheng Ling20 Mar 2023
  • To achieve 5% GDP growth, policy makers boost loans to finance larger budget deficit
  • Financials sector to stay insulated from recent US banking debacle
  • New financial regulatory agency to strengthen operating framework of sector
  • Loan growth, sturdy asset quality, and compelling dividend yields make sector attractive
  • China’s large SOE banks sit well on income side of CIO Barbell Strategy
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Government to support economic revival. At the close of the National People’s Congress, the newly appointed Premier Li Qiang announced a GDP growth target of 5% for 2023; this came on the heels of a 3% growth recorded by the world’s second largest economy in 2022.

The government’s commitment to spur growth is evident from the sharp increase in new loans of CNY5.8t between December 2022 and February 2023, representing a 98% y/y increase.

China financials as a sector plays an important role in the CIO Barbell strategy construct as it delivers attractive and sustainable dividend yields. The total return from investing in China financials has been resilient during last year’s market rout as it concluded the year flat despite declines in global equities (-18%) and Asia ex-Japan equities (-21%).

Unscathed by banking debacle in developed markets. We maintain our stance that China’s large State-owned Enterprise (SOE) banks are substantially insulated from external shocks currently faced by banks in the developed markets, owing to the former’s traditional business models.

The majority of China banks’ revenue and balance sheets are domestic centric, anchored by conventional deposits and loans. Notably, China SOE banks are known for their strong local branding and nationwide branch networks with access to cheap Current Account Savings Account (CASA) funding, and the discipline to stay away from exotic deposits and loans. As such, they are unscathed by the debacles affecting Western financial institutions.

Recommendations. China’s large SOE banks are well positioned as income generators in the CIO Barbell Strategy for their attractive and sustainable dividend yields of 7-8%. This is supported by the sector’s compelling valuations on the back of stable earnings growth of 5-6% over the next two to three years. As such, we continue to advocate China financials as part of a holistic portfolio strategy construct.

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