Multi-Asset Weekly: China Reopening Picks Up Pace
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Chief Investment Office16 Jan 2023
  • Equities: Global equities rise against positive macroeconomic backdrop
  • Credit: Prefer 3-5 year duration segment to reduce portfolio sensitivity to upward shift in rates
  • FX: USD’s sell-off running into technical hurdles as DXY approaches psychological support of 100
  • Rates: Market pricing in another 50 bps of hikes followed by subsequent cuts of c.300 bps
  • Thematics: Singapore’s real estate sector to grow modestly as economy enters soft patch
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Global equities rise as US hits inflation milestone. Global equities rose for a second week in a row as inflation in the US continued to slow; CPI for December fell -0.1% (m/m), representing the largest price decrease since April 2020; headline inflation declined to 6.5% on a y/y basis. Global equities were up 3.3% for the week, with Developed Markets and Emerging Markets gaining 3.2% and 4.2% respectively.

US equities rose last week on the back of easing inflation and positive bank earnings. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones notched weekly gains of 2.7%, 4.8%, and 2.0% respectively. Europe stocks also edged higher on the back of lower energy prices and China’s re-opening, both of which are expected to buffer the region’s impending economic slowdown; the Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 rose 1.8% and 1.9% for the week. Asian equities traded higher as China’s December exports fell slightly less than expected (9.9% vs 10.0%); HSCEI and Hang Seng were up 3.5% and 3.6% respectively.

Topic in focus: China reopening picking up pace. Since the announcement on China’s reopening and lifting city-wide lockdowns, there has been consistent improvement in economic activity not only among big cities, but also lower tier cities. This has in turn boosted the investment sentiment and confidence among local consumers. From the end October low, China equities listed in Hong Kong have risen some 50% driven by improvement in outlook and investment managers repositioning to capture the recovery.

One of the barometers of China’s re-opening is mobility data in the form of daily metro passengers among the leading cities of Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu (Figure 1). Since the lifting of Covid-19 measures, passenger rides at city metro systems have shown encouraging signs of improvement. We expect the recovery to gain momentum as more business activities regain normalcy. Against this favourable policy backdrop, we maintain our conviction on sectors and themes like technology, domestic consumption, consumer brands, physical retail, and large banks.

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