Gold: Demand Tailwinds See Bullion Hit 8-month High
Remain constructive on gold but be cognisant of headwinds
Chief Investment Office13 Jan 2023
  • Gold hits 8-month high on softer dollar and moderating wage growth in the US
  • Uptick in central bank buying looks set to continue due to dollar-related & geopolitical factors
  • Positive real rates cap upside for the yellow metal
  • Moderating inflation also limit future relevance of an inflation hedge
  • Gold prices remain well-supported; gold remains key aspect in holistic portfolio as risk diversifier
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Dual catalysts of softening dollar and cooling economy. Gold carried its strong performance from the last quarter of 2022 into the new year, hitting an eight-month high on the back of: i) a weakening dollar and ii) positive US macroeconomic data in the form of moderating wage-growth data. A weaker dollar contributes positively to gold prices as it increases demand from overseas buyers of dollar-priced bullion. Additionally, it shifts some safe haven demand from the greenback back to gold. On the macroeconomic front, non-farm payroll data came back stronger than expected for the month of December, but the silver lining is that wage growth is moderating, suggesting that the cumulative rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022 are indeed working their way through and slowing the economy. This in turn stoked investor hopes of a less aggressive rate hike trajectory, and lifted sentiment around bullion, which closed at USD1,883/oz on 11 January, marking a 15.5% increase from recent lows in November.

Gold price continues to climb as dollar weakens

Source: Bloomberg, DBS

Central bank buying to support gold prices. Central bank buying has picked up in the past two quarters, notably hitting a record high of 400 tonnes in 3Q22. This trend looks set to continue with the dollar looking likely to further weaken in 2023. The US typically leads global rate hiking cycles, and this time is no exception; while other countries have just begun or are in the thick of hiking rates, the Fed has already hiked a mammoth 425 bps thus far and will likely look to slow its pace of rate hikes moving forward. This means that interest rate differential among countries will diminish over time and the dollar will likely weaken vis-à-vis other currencies. From the perspective of central banks, buying gold is a way to derisk against the dollar and dollar assets, in favour of a more “neutral” store of value that has relative immunity against geopolitical and financial crises, and is not cuffed to any individual economy. Another reason for central banks to continue buying gold is that it provides a medium of exchange (albeit a primitive one) that is independent of the largely dollar-based international system of payments. With widespread sanctions imposed by the European Union and other western countries against Russia (including the SWIFT ban), countries that traditionally have had strong business ties with the former, such as Turkey and Kazakhstan, have increased their gold buying activity in recent quarters to this end.

Upside capped by positive real rates and moderating inflation. Notwithstanding the recent price rally and demand tailwinds, gold prices are likely to be capped on the upside by positive real rates. As central banks around the world press on with monetary tightening, the days of zero interest seem to be all but firmly behind us. Inflation, while still high in many regions, also looks to be slowing, which will further contribute to rising real rates. This phenomenon will invariably reduce the attractiveness of gold. The extent of the price impact, however, is yet to be determined. Gold’s role as an inflation hedge may also gradually diminish in importance when CPI numbers eventually moderate to lower levels.

Remain constructive on gold but be cognisant of headwinds. Headwinds aside, we remain constructive on gold on balance given the favourable conditions, including the softening dollar and expectations of a less-aggressive US rate trajectory moving forward. Structural trends favouring central bank buying should also prove supportive of gold prices in the longer run. Additionally, we continue to advocate for gold as a portfolio risk diversifier given its low correlation with bonds and equities, in a holistic and balanced portfolio. Investors can gain exposure to gold via the following expressions: i) physical gold; ii) gold futures; iii) exchange-traded funds and managed funds on physical gold and gold mining equities; or iv) direct holdings in gold mining equities, which are essentially a leveraged expression of gold.

 

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